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>X-POP3-Rcpt: slug@ohm
>Return-Path: [log in to unmask]
>From: "Watermeyer, Henry" <[log in to unmask]>
>Organization:  University of the Witswatersrand
>To: [log in to unmask], [log in to unmask],
>        Chris Anderson <[log in to unmask]>,
>        Clinton Jones <[log in to unmask]>
>Date:          Tue, 11 Nov 1997 18:18:59 +200
>Subject:       Re: Assessing the Cost WAS Y2K Induced Recession
>Reply-to: [log in to unmask]
>Priority: normal
>
>=Date sent:      Tue, 11 Nov 1997 15:24:53 +0200
>=To:             [log in to unmask], [log in to unmask],
>=                Chris Anderson <[log in to unmask]>
>=From:           Clinton Jones <[log in to unmask]>
>=Subject:        Re: Assessing the Cost WAS Y2K Induced Recession
>
>Hi again
>
>+++ Clinton Jones wrote:-
>
>=As previously mentioned, ID documents and a number of other items that hinge
>=on the South African identity number system, are at risk here, more
>=particularly; I think two other major mechanisms are going to see the folly
>
>Its not the embedding of the year in the number that matters but how
>its used. If Government systems only use the year for information, and
>I suspect that most of them do since the Id number has already had a
>00 problem before, there should be no real problem.
>
>Many people issued with Id cards were born last centuary, some even
>in 1900. Dont get too concerned about that one I suggest unless you
>have built systems which rely on the year field in the Id number!!!!
>Thats a very stupid thing to do!!!!
>
>=of their ways, namely credit bureaux, banks and the good old SABC. The banks
>
>I cant comment on credit bureaux or their problems but as businesses
>they have a responsibility to themselves and their shareholders as
>much as to the clients and the poor suckers whose names are in there.
>
>Their in ability to operate, give accurate information, will shortern
>their live expectancies but might stimulate commerce.
>
>Again the SABCs biggest problems as I see it are not in the
>administrative systems, billing etc  which are primarily not time
>critical applications but with the very hi tec kit used to actually
>deliver the correct programme at the right frequency and time from
>the correct archive or storage mechanism.
>
>The major admin system that might have a short duration problem will
>be that used to record the time spent on playing music for royalty
>purposes. Since its mostly voice at New Years start the problems will
>be small.
>
>What happens however if all the programme material held in their
>electronic stores becomes time expired over night and is automatically
>deleted. We have systems that do that.
>
>Even restores from automatic backup logs may not work because the
>last log record will say "date expired, delete *.*" or equivelent.
>
>Again my heart will not bleed for them. They are an independant
>operator, theoretically managed by professionals and staffed at
>reasonably commercial packages. If they screw it up, we get blessed
>silence and they presumably get fired.
>
>
>=are already reeling at the implications of millenium tick over for
>=Credit
>=Cards - has anyone seen one with a date beyond '99 ??? and the latest
>
>No but I do know that in the USA this problem is already being
>addressed. It arrived at the start of 1997 when their three year
>lifespan cards hit the "shop floor". The challenge aparently is in
>the retailers systems rather than the card operators systems.
>
>We presumably will hit this in January 1998 since our cards seem to
>be issued for two years. What fun!!!
>
>=indications from VISA/MC on the smart card issue seem to support the
>=notion
>=that they wish to see Smart Cards in and old Zip Zap cards out as soon as
>=possible to eliminate the human fallibility clause that most merchants are
>=victims to; in spite of trying to puch electronic card terminals into every
>=merchant domain amny are resisting on the grounds of higher cost. As to
>
>This roll out will take even longer because of the need to provide
>dual systems for up to three years, the traditional life of the card.
>
>Retailers who have just been forced away from manual machines to the
>fancy new electronic ones (that wont allow me to buy a full tank of
>petrol because of their stupid in built limits, or have a signed
>copy of my slip so that I can see if my wife or I incured the cost)
>will surely resist any attempt to force them to move again within
>such a short time.
>
>Another small problem with smart cards in SA is that, at least in the
>case of some early ones, the technogy was not robust enough to
>survive our casual dress code. A magstripe on a card bent in your
>pocket or from the heat in the glovebox in your car is normally still
>usable, the early smart cards popped their chips and may still do for
>all I know.
>
>Also contact based smart cards in the early tests built up heavy
>layers of body fat due to our climate and general eating habits which
>effected their ability to work.
>
>No dont look for a quick fix solution in that technology just yet.
>
>Again however not a government system problem.
>
>=income tax, sorry but the SARS seems to have snookered everyone else on
>=this, their number does not appear to be based on any date based formula.
>
>Again an over simplification. The number is, or should be only a
>refrence/access key even if it does contain meaningfull information.
>
>What I do not want to see is my tax being screwed up in 2000
>because the tax year end is before the start of the period, the last
>provision payment was before the first one, etc.
>
>Interest calculations will also be potentially inaccurate, and I
>dont think that one day, as in leap year = no, will be the biggest
>problem.
>
>
>Other govenment systems that I can think of that will seriously
>impact us will include pensions payouts (very low: most people still
>to be born) but they too have been living with people born last
>centuary, the issuing of licences, medical records in hospitals,
>hospital drug control systems, patient monitoring equipment, traffic
>control systems, telephone management systems ("Nobody has started
>working here yet, Sir"), GovNet and OpenNet to say nothing of the
>other networks we dont even talk about, weapons storage that will
>date expire new equipment and armourments, etc, etc, etc.
>
>Client server and pc based systems need to be checked. The current
>information on this gives a very poor prognosis for machines that
>will be 3 or more years old in 2000. That I suggest will be at least
>50% of Governments machines.
>
>
>This is not pure speculation, and I am not looking for a consulting
>position anywhere, but arises out of the work we have had to do in
>our subset of the world, called a University.
>
>To most serious y2kers none of this is new but for Manuals to just
>to do his estimates without any kind of research might have been
>correct 5 years ago but by now he should have a much better handle on
>what the true requirement in resources will be.
>
>Even if he can find teh money where does he expect to get the people.
>
>
>This will be a major set back to this country, as well as others, but
>the existing government is up for reelection in 1999 and the last
>thing they want to have used against them is the prospect of major
>budget overruns/expansions to pay for this mess.
>
>The voters, you know, wouldnt understand.
>
>Henry Watermeyer
>
>Wits
>
>
>=****************************************************************************
>=*********
>=    Clinton J Jones   Mobilephone : +27 83 7299172 Facsimile : +27 41 532067
>=                   IT Consultant/Novell Networks Administrator/WMG
>=A picture is worth a thousand words (that's why internet images take so long
>=to load )
>=****************************************************************************
>=*********
>=
>=
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>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>Henry C Watermeyer                         'Phone +27-11-716-3260/8000
>Director - Computer 7 Network services     Fax    +27-11-339-1225
>University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
>P/Bag 3, Wits 2050, South Africa           mobile +27-(0)82-800-8862
>======================================================================
>
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chris Anderson          email:                       [log in to unmask]
Y2K Cinderella Project          [log in to unmask]
http://www.cinderella.co.za             Striving for Year 2000 Compliance
------------------------------------------------------------------------