Print

Print


In this interview with Frost (10 April 2009) Lovelock makes the point that
he is working off the same information as IPCC but has a different
interpretation -- he says he could be wrong (as a scientist following his
scientific creed). UK seems to fine in his scenario (except it is close to
Europe which will be miserable). Average 6 degrees hotter and it would seem
that the job nowis sustainable cities with proper infrastructure for
civilisation to continue in select places (e.g. high up, if there is rain).
Our duty now is to survive.

See: http://video.filestube.com/video,3700d6ee3693b88e03ea.html

On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 10:23 PM, BARRY A CLEMSON
<[log in to unmask]>wrote:

> Frank,
>
> No change. One can't be 100% sure and the scientists leading the charge
> aren't claiming that.
> On Nov 11, 2009, at 6:11 AM, Frank Wood wrote:
>
> Barry,
>
> snip:
>
> It seems reasonable to do a simple risk analysis: 1. costs of doing nothing
> and then being wrong and having a climate catastrophe VS 2. costs of
> reducing our carbon footprint and then being wrong that greenhouse gases are
> a serious problem. The choice really seems to be a no brainer.
>
>
> Well this very minute change of attitude from 100% sure that global warming
> is caused by humans to doing a risk analysis is welcome.
>
> One fatal flaw in your reasoning though,
>
> What if the models that say global warming is caused by man are not complex
> enough to understand the situation? (That pesky Requisite Variety again!)
>
> This could well be the case. It doesn't change the need for action.
>
>
> Shouldn't we think the unthinkable?
>
>
> That nothing can be done about global warming because it is a huge cyclical
> event and therefore unstoppable.
>
> Shouldn't we be instead thinking of adapting civilisations and communities
> to this global warming? In other words building complex adaptive systems.
>
> Of course we should. However, we should also (and first) be making sure we
> are doing as little as possible to exacerbate the situation. My experience
> is that those who argue the warming is due to natural cyclical events are
> using that as an argument for doing nothing. In other words, this argument
> is usually an excuse, a distraction from facing the facts.
>
> The fundamental problem is that we are reaching or perhaps past the
> carrying capacity of the earth in many respects. For instance potable water
> may well turn out to be a more serious problem than global warming. Africa
> has been experiencing mass migrations because of water shortages for some
> years now. Mass starvation and national food riots are already upon us in
> something like 20 nations. The oceans are poisoned and large large areas are
> dead. The list goes on and on. Just yesterday we saw evidence that the
> official numbers for oil reserves are being falsified to avooid panicking
> the USA and that peak oil is already here. And yet we go on blindly
> advocating more.
>
> The human race lives in a very large petri dish, but a petri dish
> nevertheless. We are no more immune to the pattern of exponential growth
> followed by collapse than are the bacteria in a laboratory petri dish. The
> only rational argument left is the timing: how much time do we have left
> before catastrophic collapse.
>
> To argue otherwise is both stupid and suicidal. It risks the collapse of
> civilization.
>
> Your attitude is not helpful because it gives the definite impression that
> the environmentalists are unthinking irrational self-serving fearmongers.
> Why don't you use some of that energy to think about what needs to be done.
>
> Frank, you are obviously a strong systems scientist. Get your head out of
> the sand and make a positive contribution instead of standing there trying
> to hold the tide back.
>
> Peace and Love.,
>
> Barry
>
>
>
>
> [snip]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org

For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:  www.platformforchange.org

METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html

Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~