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We
have been subject to a long period of group think driven by the dominant group
-- i.e. the post WW2 and post-Cold War economies ... the G1 & G2 … 7, 8, …
(i.e. USA, UK, …).



This period has flowered and seeded -- the next stage is emerging. What this
next stage is, if it is sustainable, is anyone's guess, but it is likely to
have a number of fundamental features: (a) diversity of opinion; (b)
'responsible' governance being defined as focused on the people
(nation/tribe/etc), and not the abstract theory (globalised economics in the
current case); and (c)  information efficient and highly disintermediated
(low on unnecessary  'middle men').



My thesis has been, in the ongoing war of ideologies at my place of work
(between systems and economic/policy think), that the key core issue from a
sustainable governance perspective (a term that I use to mean viable governance
with a twist of sustainability and a few chunks of climate change ... and stirred
not shaken) is that the governance system that is likely to emerge as
successful is the one that most closely maps onto the underlaying culture. This
is the key: a form of harmonic resonance if you like. Therefore they are not
the same because they come out of schools of economics (for example) but rather
because they are rooted on their base stock. 



This is, in essence, what Chavez has been saying and is now doing -- rather
successfully. The South American situation is the one to watch for early signs
in my view. Why? Many reasons, but two will suffice here I think: (a) there is
some indigenous root stock still alive and enabling a new form of socialism
that is in fact reverting back to what was there before European invasion; and
(b) unlike those post colonial nations from the British period which are still
largely in a process of recovering; the South American region is a couple of
hundred years further down the recovery route. Hence, they are leading the new
wave. Once this catches on then it will spread exponentially (or at least not
linear).



So we can see, given enough of the parameters are positive, (and having energy
sources is one of those), that new systems of grouping collaboratively will be
developed -- multi bi-laterals rather than global uni-lateral (i.e. systems
ones clustering, rather than subsidiary systems to an hypothetical master
system at n+1 -- in this case seen as American Hegemony by anti globalisation
protesters. Therefore , it is likely that the VSM can help reflect on this
scenario and (a) its probabilities; (b) the possible consequences); and (c) the
generative interventions that contribute to causation (or otherwise). 



So, in summary, Russia, China, India,
Europe, America etc will maintain their
strengths based on how well their systems align with soft features which
resonate with their respective psyche etc. For example, American individualism
may work for Americans but may not work for others. Then we have the ecological
issue/perspective of what works best at the inter system level -- i.e. is
aligned Americanism more or less effective than aligned Chinese or Russian or
South American etc.



Here below is a recent sample blog response that sent thorough to my particular
clutch of governing servants by way of benchmark. It reflects, in narrative
form, I believe, the issues I have outlined above.

added:
Saturday, 11 October, 2008, 03:27 GMT 04:27 UK 

I live
in Hong Kong, and although the stock market
has suffered here like everywhere else, the average person is not directly
suffering here, because we have not been encouraged to live beyond our means
like in the west. Therefore, we are all in a more stable position to withstand
this onslaught. You might also like to know that our government has made a
surplus for the last 2 years and has given us all a full rebate on our rates
for the last 12 months. They are also giving us a $300 per month rebate on our
electricity and gas bills for the next 12 months, and are giving 2 lots of
$3,000 to every pensioner. There are other incentives too, and all this at a
time when the financial world is crumbling. Maybe our government should offer a
few tips on prudence! david ingram, happy valley


It, an
others, can be found in the BBC blog:

What will end the financial crisis?

US
President George W Bush has called for a "serious global response" to
the economic crisis. What will restore confidence?



See: http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?forumID=5449&edition=2&ttl=20081011091124



One might note the same sentiments could be expressed by Singaporeans (perhaps)
who also live in a prosperous Authoritarian climate -- perhaps also well tuned
to their harmonious development needs. 



Therefore, I will wait and see whether the current moves to "work
together" in a form of global G1 - G7 - G20 - Gn+1... collaboration rather
than competition, (led by the great leader of the UK, Mr Brown I hear
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7665645.stm), and very much based
on our communal tax bounty, will bear fruit. I hope so, but I fear not. 



To all the 'Hill Climbers' out there: 'Happy Valley'...
one shoe size does not fit all feet. 



Economic Catholicism is dead … variety is alive and regenerating. 

 

I’ll finish with a concluding
comment from a recent email from Luc (related to the Steve Keen topic) which I
hope he does not mind me including here – I think it is right on message:

 

.
. . . Now, the only solution to this hell is forgiveness: restoring trust
through mutually getting rid of our debts and restarting to create wealth, not
through compounded interest and profiteering from debts, but through creative
human work. Exactly the contrary than labelling that work as a cost and making
it a scarce resource, while it is our only source of well being and wealth.
Keep the economy out of the stupid hands of economists. Let's go back to work,
trading, wheeling and dealing through the creation of meaningful and
trusthworthy human relations. Not the abstract HR, but real relations between
real people. 

 

I agree entirely. What works
is work. What is not ‘work’ is not going to work in this new stage. Whether it’s
a workers ‘paradise’ is another matter altogether. There is no reason why it
cannot be a reasonable sustainable standard of living for most. Dreams don’t
work – except where they galvanise people, such as Martin Luther King’s speech on
seeing the promised land (some days
before he was murdered). Too many are too cynical these days. 

 

Trickle down ‘wealth’ does
not work. The invisible hand of the ‘market place’ is a proven myth. It is now
the very much the transparent and open hand of our leader-servant based
governance systems that are now being reactivated. My main complaint is that I
think the costs of repairing this failed market ‘system’ on the way down should
be deducted from the profits of those who benefited most on the way up. Given
that most likely 80% of the wealth resides in the hands of 20% of the people (actually
it is far worse than this I suspect) then it should not be too hard to locate them. (and don't expect the media moguls to help with this task!)


Now I’m
sure there will be a contract out for me! 


--- On Sun, 12/10/08, Ern Reynolds <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
From: Ern Reynolds <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: Coerced Capitalism
To:
 [log in to unmask]
Received:
 Sunday, 12 October, 2008, 3:07 PM



 
        
"Coerced capitalism" occurred to me while visiting in China.
 
        There 
it was explained to me by a George Washington University Business School PhD 
cybernetician that in China you could invest in anything you could dream 
up.  The only catch was, you could not take the proceeds out of the 
country!  
 
        Hence 
Shanghai has many gorgeous new office buildings that are "see-through" (i.e., 
have no tenants to reward the investors' sunk capital).  
 
        Its 
opposite to the meaning of "free market capitalism".
 
Ern Reynolds
 
On Sun, 12 Oct 2008 10:15:26 +0700 Maurice Yolles <[log in to unmask]> writes:

  It strikes me that "coerced capitalism" takes on the same pattern 
  of thinking as "coerced rights" where we are subject to despotic means by 
  which the civil administration deals with apparent and often uncontested 
  (sometimes because of the potential penalties applied) infringements of the 
  law and by-law.

I wonder what the relationship is between "coerced 
  capitalism" and "economic despotism"?

Maurice 


  On Sat, Oct 11, 2008 at 11:00 PM, Ern Reynolds <[log in to unmask]> 
  wrote:

  
    
    Try "coerced capitalism" as a descriptor.
     
    Ern Reynolds
     
    On Sat, 11 Oct 2008 13:07:57 +0700 Maurice Yolles <[log in to unmask]> 
    writes:
    
      I am not sure I am happy with the term Authoritarian 
      Capitalism from an ideological perspective. Perhaps Regulated Capitalism 
      is better, but then the same problems emerge no matter what it is called, 
      that of pathological processes. It is of course such pathologies that 
      allowed the unconstrained excesses of capitalist processes to 
      develop.

So, whatever model one uses, the problem of the 
      development of pathologies needs to be addressed.

Maurice


      On Sat, Oct 11, 2008 at 12:18 PM, R Clemens <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

      
        
          
          
            I liked Taeb's views (and I referred to the Black Swan 
              in Metaphorum 2008 -- in any case, I live in the black swan river 
              colony) but I did not get the shirt-to-food thing either. 
              

I see less need for multiple banks -- short term 
              efficiency (hmmm?) vs longer term lack of efficacy. I think we can 
              see 'capitalism' and its associated innovations as a process that 
              has largely run its course -- not an end state in itself. Most 
              governance systems -- from participative democracy through to 
              banking operations -- can be much more efficient with modern 
              communications technology. I qualify capitalism because I agree 
              with the view that we do not have it any more in any case -- 
              rather we have some hybrid condition. 

Hence, in my 
              opinion, the phrase "21 Century Socialism" used by Chavez as a 
              fuzzy handle on where he was headed. I am watching him and Putin 
              and communist China to see what they are going to do with all the 
              'rope' they just bought on credit. (ref Marx/Lenin). I see Russia 
              is now talking with Iceland. A nice straight line on the voyage 
              down to South America. Another weak signal I'm waiting for (to 
              satisfy my S4 hypothesis) will be the 'liberation' of the Falkland 
              Islands! "Authoritarian Capitalism" is another phrase that has 
              been seen lately.

Al Q: -- I doubt they are doing anything 
              (assuming they actually exist outside Hollywood studios). No need 
              to. If the 'twin towers' snake bite of 9/11 (which was a direct 
              symbolic link to 11/Sept'73 in Chile, for those who care to see 
              it) can be interpreted as having affected the 'Brain of the Firm' (aka GWB et 
              al) then we can now perhaps see the poison affecting the 'Heart of the Enterprise'. 
              Always remembering that time frames at higher recursion levels 
              might mean that 5-years on our scale is somewhat less on a higher 
              scale. What next? Anyones guess -- Decision and Control? That is 
              what I liked about Taleb's audio -- he was focused on the dangers 
              of using maths etc to obscure the fact that we just don't know 
              some things (and that truth is useful for responsible governance). 
              

Question: How much of this UK money is in Iceland to 
              escape taxation etc? And how much of it (and other vast imaginary 
              hordes of it) are the actual proceeds of the criminal sub-prime 
              lending asset inflation bubble? If these so called savings are 
              actually just the virtual memories and book entries of 
              transactions within the credit bubble system -- then why should 
              they be guaranteed? 



--- On Sat, 11/10/08, Nick 
              Green <[log in to unmask]> 
              wrote:

              From: 
                Nick Green <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: 
                Taleb
To: [log in to unmask]
Received: 
                Saturday, 11 October, 2008, 3:07 PM 
                
                
                


                
                Taleb has just appeared on BBC2 
                Newsnight. Some of the points he made are probably right but in 
                talking about "not being able to learn from the past" he talks 
                about past crises. Paradox.
                 
                In our terms a large transient 
                corresponds to a rare event (John Waters and I were just talking 
                about infinite impulse response, modelling and estimating 
                models). VSM is better than Taleb alone would suggest- even 
                though he is Mr Time Series Analysis in many respects. 
                
                 
                "How do you analyse a system?" I 
                once said to Stafford back in the seventies. "Perturb it" he 
                said. So we have the transient perturbation, the slope and step 
                response of management. We would quickly find out something was 
                wrong because we were measuring it in real time. The current 
                problem seems to stem from the fact that the exposed risks 
                weren't known (and we're not talking about rare events 
                here).  Insuring depositors seems to be the right recovery 
                strategy- as in so many professions removing perverse incentives 
                seems to be the ultimate cure. That means more accountability- 
                Taleb's remarks about Medicine (in the mp3) are particularly 
                poignant there (doctors have few cures but plenty of remedies 
                that can injure). I must say Taleb's remarks (on 
                Newsnight) about mounting complexity seemed insufficient 
                and the idea that buying a shirt (made in China) puts up the 
                price of protein was obscure to me if not plain wild can 
                anyone explain? Could this be one of Stafford's rubbish 
                correlations? Mind you all events are at least weakly 
                correlated. 
                 
                One thing is for sure speculators 
                agreements to trade exist and can be analysed. Some are sitting, 
                silently, on piles of cash, some are shaking in their boots 
                with no cash. Who are they? For all we know Al Qaeda just found 
                a better way to destroy infidel civilization other than 
                by bombing. 
                 
                Too much apocalyptic talk when all 
                we need to do is firmly reform world Terms of Trade 
                with the aim of Justice for producers and consumers through 
                greater accountability: what products actually are, their 
                provenance and, possibly, end user certificates. Indeed real 
                time reporting on the web of how producers perform was 
                recommended by International Auditors two years ago http://cybsoc.org/#realt
                 
                There was a time when as serfs we 
                had to go the landlords house to bake bread, use a blacksmith 
                and even suckle his children. Do we need centralized banks 
                anymore in real-time webworld? They seem to be standing in the 
                way of Fair Trade.
                 
                Best
                 
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-- 
Professor Dr. Maurice Yolles
Centre for the 
      Creation of Coherent Change & Knowledge (C4K)
[log in to unmask]; 
      [log in to unmask]
http://www.ljmu.ac.uk/c4k
International Journal of 
      Organisational Transformation and Social Change
http://www.intellectbooks.com/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
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-- 
Professor Dr. Maurice 
  Yolles
Centre for the Creation of Coherent Change & Knowledge 
  (C4K)
[log in to unmask]; [log in to unmask]
http://www.ljmu.ac.uk/c4k
International 
  Journal of Organisational Transformation and Social Change
http://www.intellectbooks.com/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
  For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum 
  Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org 
  METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - 
  https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html Archive of CYBCOM eList 
  available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html 
  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
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