I liked Taeb's views (and I referred to the Black Swan in Metaphorum 2008 -- in any case, I live in the black swan river colony) but I did not get the shirt-to-food thing either.
I see less need for multiple banks -- short term efficiency (hmmm?) vs longer term lack of efficacy. I think we can see 'capitalism' and its associated innovations as a process that has largely run its course -- not an end state in itself. Most governance systems -- from participative democracy through to banking operations -- can be much more efficient with modern communications technology. I qualify capitalism because I agree with the view that we do not have it any more in any case -- rather we have some hybrid condition.
Hence, in my opinion, the phrase "21 Century Socialism" used by Chavez as a fuzzy handle on where he was headed. I am watching him and Putin and communist China to see what they are going to do with all the 'rope' they just bought on credit. (ref Marx/Lenin). I see Russia is now talking with Iceland. A nice straight line on the voyage down to South America. Another weak signal I'm waiting for (to satisfy my S4 hypothesis) will be the 'liberation' of the Falkland Islands! "Authoritarian Capitalism" is another phrase that has been seen lately.
Al Q: -- I doubt they are doing anything (assuming they actually exist outside Hollywood studios). No need to. If the 'twin towers' snake bite of 9/11 (which was a direct symbolic link to 11/Sept'73 in Chile, for those who care to see it) can be interpreted as having affected the 'Brain of the Firm' (aka GWB et al) then we can now perhaps see the poison affecting the 'Heart of the Enterprise'. Always remembering that time frames at higher recursion levels might mean that 5-years on our scale is somewhat less on a higher scale. What next? Anyones guess -- Decision and Control? That is what I liked about Taleb's audio -- he was focused on the dangers of using maths etc to obscure the fact that we just don't know some things (and that truth is useful for responsible governance).
Question: How much of this UK money is in Iceland to escape taxation etc? And how much of it (and other vast imaginary hordes of it) are the actual proceeds of the criminal sub-prime lending asset inflation bubble? If these so called savings are actually just the virtual memories and book entries of transactions within the credit bubble system -- then why should they be guaranteed?
--- On Sat, 11/10/08, Nick Green <[log in to unmask]> wrote:From: Nick Green <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Received: Saturday, 11 October, 2008, 3:07 PMTaleb has just appeared on BBC2 Newsnight. Some of the points he made are probably right but in talking about "not being able to learn from the past" he talks about past crises. Paradox.In our terms a large transient corresponds to a rare event (John Waters and I were just talking about infinite impulse response, modelling and estimating models). VSM is better than Taleb alone would suggest- even though he is Mr Time Series Analysis in many respects."How do you analyse a system?" I once said to Stafford back in the seventies. "Perturb it" he said. So we have the transient perturbation, the slope and step response of management. We would quickly find out something was wrong because we were measuring it in real time. The current problem seems to stem from the fact that the exposed risks weren't known (and we're not talking about rare events here). Insuring depositors seems to be the right recovery strategy- as in so many professions removing perverse incentives seems to be the ultimate cure. That means more accountability- Taleb's remarks about Medicine (in the mp3) are particularly poignant there (doctors have few cures but plenty of remedies that can injure). I must say Taleb's remarks (on Newsnight) about mounting complexity seemed insufficient and the idea that buying a shirt (made in China) puts up the price of protein was obscure to me if not plain wild can anyone explain? Could this be one of Stafford's rubbish correlations? Mind you all events are at least weakly correlated.One thing is for sure speculators agreements to trade exist and can be analysed. Some are sitting, silently, on piles of cash, some are shaking in their boots with no cash. Who are they? For all we know Al Qaeda just found a better way to destroy infidel civilization other than by bombing.Too much apocalyptic talk when all we need to do is firmly reform world Terms of Trade with the aim of Justice for producers and consumers through greater accountability: what products actually are, their provenance and, possibly, end user certificates. Indeed real time reporting on the web of how producers perform was recommended by International Auditors two years ago http://cybsoc.org/#realtThere was a time when as serfs we had to go the landlords house to bake bread, use a blacksmith and even suckle his children. Do we need centralized banks anymore in real-time webworld? They seem to be standing in the way of Fair Trade.BestN.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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