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AFRIK-IT  March 1998

AFRIK-IT March 1998

Subject:

DEVMODL: Topic 002: Generating a Last Ditch National Y2k Project Plan

From:

Chris Anderson <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

African Network of IT Experts and Professionals (ANITEP) List

Date:

Sat, 21 Mar 1998 14:32:32 GMT

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (111 lines)

Generating a Last Ditch National Y2k Project Plan

This article forms part of the "Y2k MODEL FOR
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES" Series.

In 1995, Ken Orr presented a slide which showed his
predictions for the probable effects of Y2k for
AWARENESS, DENIAL, PANIC, TRIAGE, LITIGATION.

Taking his example and projecting forward to the
current time, we are seeing AWARENESS and DENIAL moving
forward until today, and expect to project them forward
as an ongoing exercise.  We have not seen any PANIC
yet.  TRIAGE is yet to come.

Now that we are emerging from the "Middle Game" and
moving into the "End Game" (to steal Chess terminology)
and have a look at generating a Project Plan, starting
today, a chilling picture emerges.

There are really two project plans, one for Mainframes
(the EBCIDIC scenario) and one for PC's and LANs (The
ASCII scenario).

The EBCDIC scenario presupposes total replacement of
the Operating System software, Utilities and
Middleware.  And then retrofitting application software
to work in this new environment.  July 1, 1998 is in
my opinion the "DROP DEAD" date for such systems. The
ordering cycle and product lead times would preclude success.

The ASCII scenario presumes application of patches,
Setup of appropriate parameters, and also retrofitting
of application software.  But total replacement, and
the corresponding disruption, is not necessarily an
issue.

Somewhere in between are those systems where a decision
has been made to migrate to a different architecture or
more commonly where an organisation has both EBCDIC and
ASCII components.

Another assumption is that if people do not start
today, then 1 May 1998 seems to be the latest feasible
start date.

NATIONAL Y2k PROJECT PLAN

Immediate Start: (1998-03-17) 470 working days
Late start: (1998-05-01) 394 working days
Drop Dead date: 1998-07-01

Support for Y2k Life Cycle:

Early Start Late Start Target     Milestone
1998-03-17 1998-05-01 2000-01-03  AWARENESS
1998-03-17 1998-05-01 2000-01-03  ASSESSMENT
1998-03-17 1998-07-01 2000-01-03  REMEDIATION
1998-03-17 1998-07-01 2000-01-03  VALIDATION
1998-03-17 1998-07-01 2000-01-03  TESTING
1998-03-17 1998-07-01 2000-01-03  IMPLEMENTATION

OPTIONAL MILESTONES

1999-03-17 1998-07-01 1999-01-01  Year End Testing
1998-03-17 1998-07-01 1999-01-01  Euro compatibility

Now this is a very crude model. It does not even
attempt to apply estimates of how long each phase
should take. However it is a starting point.

The original suggestion that Y2k remediation and
testing should be completed by end 1998 is probably
no longer feasible. If however, 1997 year end test
data is still available, an "asynchronous" test could
be performed. Similarly, the 1998 year end data
could be used for parallel testing during 1999.

A complicating issue is that organisations differ in
their end of financial period reporting dates.

My suggestion, in order to obtain the maximum
"parallelism" between phases is to chop the effort into
smaller chunks, starting with Obvious Mission Critical
Systems, put these into the Remediation and Testing
cycle as soon as possible and continue the cycle for
other systems.

For example, any systems which would be affected by the
impact of the Euro currency should be put on a separate
fast track to make the dealine of 1999-01-01..

The function of the National Competence Centre would be
to map the schedules of the Major Governmental
Infrastructual Players against this base model as a
base for the National risk Assessment.

Local Competence Centres could do the same for Industry
and Commerce.

There would be great PR Awareness value in making this
information public.

An HTML version of this document, with diagrams,
is to be found at http://www.cinderella.co.za/pplan.htm
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chris Anderson          email:                       [log in to unmask]
Y2K Cinderella Project          [log in to unmask]
http://www.cinderella.co.za             Striving for Year 2000 Compliance
------------------------------------------------------------------------

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