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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  January 2012

UCD-STAFFORDBEER January 2012

Subject:

Re: Keynes was right - Paul Krugman

From:

Jan Kuiper <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

[log in to unmask]

Date:

Wed, 4 Jan 2012 16:45:38 +0100

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (355 lines)

Roger, Trevor and John Maynard,

Part of your discussion depends on how we define 'wealth'. I'm sorry to 
have studied economics (it's a waste of efford to try and gain knowledge 
in something that is really in the minds of people and the outcome of 
agreements/disagreements (eg stock prices and annual-figures)). 
Economics usually point to the GDP to define wealth (see for a list: 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita 
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita>). 
I agree (to Riger) that unequality in income is also an important 
factor. In The Netherlands in the 80's we worked with the Theil 
coefficient (an index for inequality) to design tax-laws for instance. 
The current coefficient seems to be the Gini. The Netherlands has a 
moderate Gini nowadays (0,426). But th US has a higher ons (0,486). If 
Gini is high, there's more income inequality. And more poverty, though 
GDP can be high. Another measure that interested me when I studied (I 
did a phd on poverty in the Netherlands) was the general skewness in 
equity and income. Also of very little interest to policymakers 
nowadays. People seem to (culturally) belief that everybody can be a 
winner which might lead to loads and loads of losers.
One of my favorate writers in economics is Steven D. Levitt, 
freakonomics. He explains the above mentioned cultural flaw by 
describing how drug-gangs work and think. Economics surely should call 
itself a behavioral science.

best wishes,
Jan

*Jan Kuiper*

*Dirk van Delenhage 26*

*3437 KR Nieuwegein*

*06 53139060*

*030 6051482*

*www.kvdk.nl*

*www.icodrome.nl*

*www.expotitie.nl*


Op 4-1-2012 16:22, Roger Harnden schreef:
> Trevor - all I was simply trying to do was lift your own eyes from an 
> economist paradigm . It's a brute fact of life that if you wander the 
> streets of those countries I mentioned they are less consumer driven 
> and more systemic in their living practices, than US - and poverty and 
> pain are (as one would expect) less prevalent.
>
> Trevor - perhaps the only substantive point I am making on what is 
> indeed an important discussion - is that this is not a discussion 
> about wealth distribution, but what I would call infrastructural 
> re-alignment. And, I would suggest, such re-alignment is already going 
> on but will be fought tooth and nail both by vested interests and 
> unthought assumptions.
>
> Best wishes,
>
> Roger
>
> On 2012-01-04, at 3:11 PM, Trevor E Hilder wrote:
>
>> Dear Roger,
>>
>> See below:
>>
>> Regards,
>> Trevor
>>
>> On 4 Jan 2012, at 14:43, Roger Harnden <[log in to unmask] 
>> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>> wrote:
>>
>>> Trevor - indeed it is a taboo subject (in the real sense of the word 
>>> 'taboo').
>>>
>>> By the way - it is strange to hear you of all people quote the 
>>> oft-quoted - that US is' far the wealthiest place on the planet'. 
>>> Trevor, by some sleight of the economists hand (that you have 
>>> yourself just cast doubt on) this might be the case - but travel 
>>> round Sweden, Holland, Belgium, Switzerland (and doubtless other 
>>> parts of the world including several of the Middle Eastern nations) 
>>> - travel round and TALK with their habitants and relfect on their 
>>> reflections, and one quickly discovers the obvious. It is simply not 
>>> true! US is awash with pain, poverty, anger, resentment and 
>>> suffering in vast swathes of the country. In other countries, there 
>>> are indeed similar qualities (pain etc), but their scale is 
>>> miniscule compared top that of US.
>>
>> [TEH] You are not distinguishing between the massive wealth that the 
>> USA is endowed with and how it is distributed.
>>
>> This is the same issue as the fact that a huge proportion of the UK 
>> population was living in abject poverty in the year 1900, despite the 
>> fact that the UK ruled over the greatest empre the world had ever 
>> seen and commanded massive resources of capital and other capacities.
>>
>> If you compare the Uk with the Netherlands, you can see that the 
>> Netherlands was very fortunate to be pushed out of the race for world 
>> domination in the mid-eighteenth century.
>>
>> The French and British populace suffered terribly while their 
>> policial elites struggled for world domination, while the 
>> Nederlanders quietly prospered.
>>
>>>
>>> And let's not forget - US scale of poverty pain etc WILL increase as 
>>> the pigeons come home to roost (and US attempts to deflect the truth 
>>> by exporting in the way of military aggression (eg in Africa))
>>>
>>>
>>> Roger
>>>
>>> PS not criticising your stance, Trevor (which I agree with) - just 
>>> pointing out something rather obvious for the non-economist
>>>
>>>
>>> On 2012-01-04, at 2:29 PM, Trevor E Hilder wrote:
>>>
>>>> Dear Stefan,
>>>>
>>>> One of the mysteries of economics is why nobody seems to consider 
>>>> the cultural effects on the populace of being constantly subjected 
>>>> to brainwashing telling them they are "losers" if they don't buy 
>>>> all sorts of stuff that they don't need and can't afford. This 
>>>> mentality seems to be accompanied by a penchant for voting for 
>>>> politicians who are prepared to make
>>>> absurd promises without bothering about the small detail of how to 
>>>> pay for them.
>>>>
>>>> Is there a connection between this deliberate undermining of people 
>>>> and the level of public and private indebtedness? It seems likely, 
>>>> but nobody seems to examine the matter. Is it a taboo subject?
>>>>
>>>> The Independent newspaper today points out that governments need to 
>>>> roll over $7.6 trillion in debt during 2012. The two biggest 
>>>> offenders are Japan with about $3 trillion and the USA with $2.8 
>>>> trillion. Everything else pales into insignificance in comparison 
>>>> with these two.
>>>>
>>>> I believe the Japanese government is mainly indebted to Japanese 
>>>> citizens, whereas foreigners own a substantial amount of the US debt.
>>>>
>>>> What is it about the USA? It remains by far the wealthiest place on 
>>>> the planet, but since 1985 it seems to have decided to live off the 
>>>> rest of the planet instead of financing itself, which it could 
>>>> easily do with quite modest rises in taxation.
>>>>
>>>> Can anybody explain this?
>>>>
>>>> The UK finished the Second World War bankrupt and has floundered 
>>>> along ever since, so perhaps it has more excuse for the dire mess 
>>>> it is in?
>>>>
>>>> Regards,
>>>> Trevor
>>>>
>>>> On 3 Jan 2012, at 19:03, Stefan Wasilewski <[log in to unmask] 
>>>> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> BTW
>>>>>
>>>>> For a better understanding of the full US issues go to IOUSA on 
>>>>> Google.
>>>>>
>>>>> S
>>>>> On 3 Jan 2012, at 16:29, Alan Pearson wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Hello Joe:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Unfortunately, Governments' interpretation of Keynes has been 
>>>>>> wrong from the word "Go." It's not that they haven't run deficits 
>>>>>> when the economy is in recession; it's that they've never run 
>>>>>> surpluses when the economy is booming. The need to set aside 
>>>>>> money in the good times for future stimulation of the economy in 
>>>>>> the bad times has been studiously ignored forever.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It would have been helpful if Krugman had put more emphasis on 
>>>>>> that part. The result of the current austerity approach will 
>>>>>> inevitably be to punish future generations for this generation's 
>>>>>> past and current follies (if not crimes). What is going to happen 
>>>>>> to career opportunities, health care, infrastructure (sanitation, 
>>>>>> water supply, etc.), and old-age security, for the generation 
>>>>>> that is now arriving on a depressed job market – and their offspring?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This is one compensation for being old and past it: we might just 
>>>>>> escape ahead of the sheriff.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Happy 2012!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Alan
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 2012-01-02, at 3:08 PM, Joseph Truss wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>   Keynes Was Right
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>             By PAUL KRUGMAN
>>>>>>>             <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editorialsandoped/oped/columnists/paulkrugman/index.html?inline=nyt-per>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>             Published: December 29, 2011
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>   * RECOMMEND
>>>>>>>   * TWITTER
>>>>>>>   * LINKEDIN
>>>>>>>   * COMMENTS (688)
>>>>>>>     <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/keynes-was-right.html?_r=1#commentsContainer>
>>>>>>>   * SIGN IN TO E-MAIL
>>>>>>>     <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/keynes-was-right.html?_r=1>
>>>>>>>   * PRINT
>>>>>>>     <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/keynes-was-right.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print>
>>>>>>>   * REPRINTS
>>>>>>>     <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/keynes-was-right.html?_r=1#>
>>>>>>>   * SHARE
>>>>>>>     <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/keynes-was-right.html?_r=1#>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> <http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/opinion&pos=Frame4A&sn2=f8475720/9aad5d74&sn1=2ffc95e7/74d375d6&camp=FSL2012_ArticleTools_120x60_1787487b_nyt5&ad=120x60_descendents_dec16_GGnom&goto=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Efoxsearchlight%2Ecom%2Fthedescendants>
>>>>>>> “The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the 
>>>>>>> Treasury.” So declared John Maynard Keynes in 1937, even as 
>>>>>>> F.D.R. was about to prove him right by trying to balance the 
>>>>>>> budget too soon, sending the United States economy — which had 
>>>>>>> been steadily recovering up to that point — into a severe 
>>>>>>> recession. Slashing government spending in a depressed economy 
>>>>>>> depresses the economy further; austerity should wait until a 
>>>>>>> strong recovery is well under way.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>             Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Paul Krugman
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Unfortunately, in late 2010 and early 2011, politicians and 
>>>>>>> policy makers in much of the Western world believed that they 
>>>>>>> knew better, that we should focus on deficits, not jobs, even 
>>>>>>> though our economies had barely begun to recover from the slump 
>>>>>>> that followed the financial crisis. And by acting on that 
>>>>>>> anti-Keynesian belief, they ended up proving Keynes right all 
>>>>>>> over again.
>>>>>>> In declaring Keynesian economics vindicated I am, of course, at 
>>>>>>> odds with conventional wisdom. In Washington, in particular, the 
>>>>>>> failure of the Obama stimulus package to produce an employment 
>>>>>>> boom is generally seen as having proved that government spending 
>>>>>>> can’t create jobs. But those of us who did the math realized, 
>>>>>>> right from the beginning, that the Recovery and Reinvestment Act 
>>>>>>> of 2009 (more than a third of which, by the way, took the 
>>>>>>> relatively ineffective form of tax cuts) was much too small 
>>>>>>> given the depth of the slump. And we also predicted the 
>>>>>>> resulting political backlash.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Full text: 
>>>>>>> http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/keynes-was-right.html?_r=1
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> JT]- This provides a clear image of how hard it is to 'prove' 
>>>>>>> cause and effect (never mind circular causality!) because of 
>>>>>>> time lag effects, especially when the 'system' denies its own 
>>>>>>> holism. Everyone has data, it is the context and culture that 
>>>>>>> determines interpretation.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Joe
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Joseph Truss
>>>>>>> Team Syntegrity International AG
>>>>>>> Metaphorum Group
>>>>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
>>>>>>> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org 
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>>>>>>> <http://www.platformforchange.org/> METAPHORUM eList Archive 
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>>>>>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - 
>>>>>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html 
>>>>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For 
>>>>>> more information go to: www.metaphorum.org 
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>>>>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - 
>>>>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html 
>>>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
>>>>>
>>>>> Stefan Wasilewski
>>>>> [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For 
>>>>> more information go to: www.metaphorum.org 
>>>>> <http://www.metaphorum.org/> For the Metaphorum Collaborative 
>>>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org 
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>>>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - 
>>>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html 
>>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For 
>>>> more information go to: www.metaphorum.org 
>>>> <http://www.metaphorum.org/> For the Metaphorum Collaborative 
>>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org 
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>>>> available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html 
>>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - 
>>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html 
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
>>>
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For 
>>> more information go to: www.metaphorum.org 
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>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org 
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>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For 
>> more information go to: www.metaphorum.org 
>> <http://www.metaphorum.org> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working 
>> Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org 
>> <http://www.platformforchange.org> METAPHORUM eList Archive available 
>> at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html Archive of 
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>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For more 
> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum Collaborative 
> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org METAPHORUM 
> eList Archive available at - 
> https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html Archive of CYBCOM 
> eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html 
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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