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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  July 2011

UCD-STAFFORDBEER July 2011

Subject:

Re: Cybernetic Filters

From:

"[log in to unmask]" <[log in to unmask]>

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Date:

Wed, 27 Jul 2011 08:30:53 -0400

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text/plain

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text/plain (151 lines)

Mike,

Thanks very much for these leads. Apologies for the delay. Been moving
house.

Paul 

Original Message:
-----------------
From: M.J.R. van de Wijnckel [log in to unmask]
Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2011 15:57:09 +0200
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Cybernetic Filters


Paul,

As Roger Duck has also posted, Malik Management has demonstrated a bit of
their cyberfilter tools at the Cwarel Isaf Conference 2009, in their
Operations Room in the Malik office.
I know some of the people working on this (I'm not directly involved or
something). At that same conference, Theodore Modis presented his work with
S-curves (logistic curves).
Fredmund Malik uses this rather extensively in his system studies of this
current crisis (also inspired by Cesare Marchetti).

I am doing intensive work with a cyberfilter called "Process Reliability" to
analyze the performance of production processes and it's fully compatible
with Beer's Actuality, Capability, Potentiality-model (and thus compatible
with VSM).
The issue for this forum, is that this is all very confidential, none of
this real applications can be shared here in public.

Last summer Luc and I also had the opportunity to see a cyberfilter called
"Synergetic Navigation System" for the monitoring of psychotherapeutic
processes.

All three different tools can be found via google if you like.


Mike.

-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
Van: Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] Namens Roger Harnden
Verzonden: vrijdag 15 juli 2011 9:38
Aan: [log in to unmask]
Onderwerp: Re: Cybernetic Filters

Paul - as you might or might not be aware, it emerged last week something
that many of us had intuited at the time - that 'objective and neutral'
commnentary from UK nuclear experts during the first few days after the
drama in Fukuyma kicked off, were carefully orchestrated by UK governement
and nuclear industry 'in case the news had an adverse impact on the nuclear
industry'.

That is a filter - one that would have worked had there been no further
deterioration at the site in Japan. The 'mistake' was not one of the
industry nor the UK government, but for the academics (note Frank!) that
were wheeled out to make the 'rational' case that there was no disaster.
They (and not the industry nor the government) have been left discredited
and foolish, as they each portrayed themself AS experts. As such they were
part of the filters (whereas they should nt have allowed themselves to be.

These comments might well be at a tangent to your query, Paul..........but
somewhere there is some sort of response...


Roger


On 2011-07-15, at 1:49 AM, BARRY A CLEMSON wrote:

> Paul,
> 
> The most interesting example of a cybernetic filter that I am aware of was
done by Jay Karlin for the USA navy shore repair facilities. 
> 
> Jay's assignment was to find better ways to schedule navy ships thru the
shore repair facilities. I don't remember precise numbers so will give
approximate numbers in what follows. 
> 
> This was a very difficult logistics problem: roughly fifty different shops
(several varieties of pipe fitters, welding shops, machine shops,
electronics shops, etc. etc.) and about ten thousand different parts that
might or might not need various levels of overhaul / repair. The problem was
sufficiently complex that there was endemic oscillation in many of the
shops, i.e., alternating backlogs and nothing to do. 
> 
> The key to improving the efficiency was to stop looking at the parts from
a human perspective and to look at them from the perspective of the shops.
There was a warehouse full of records that included the amount of time each
of these ten thousand parts spent being worked on by each of the 50 shops.
Jay created bar graphs with the shops along the x-axis and time in the shop
on the vertical axis. It turned out that these ten thousand different parts
all fit within a few hundred profiles. Thereafter the scheduling was done
using these couple hundred profiles rather than the ten thousand parts. 
> 
> To reiterate, the key was to forget the human perspective and to look at
the situation from the perspective of the shops. 
> 
> Jay's new methods for scheduling was so successful that the navy canceled
the contract for designing new shore repair facilities. And since a
different division of Jay's employer was the prime contractor for designing
the new facilities (and this was a BIG contract), his employer was NOT a
happy camper. I think Jay avoided being fired only because his work is
brilliant.
> 
> Barry

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