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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  November 2009

UCD-STAFFORDBEER November 2009

Subject:

Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)

From:

Nick Green <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 26 Nov 2009 22:46:25 -0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (342 lines)

Get ready for the Global Thermostat programme!

--------------------------------------------------
From: "Frank Wood" <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Thursday, November 26, 2009 10:21 PM
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)

> Also re: formerly predicted ice age, it is now noticed that in the  arctic 
> the ice is actually advancing again! And it's not helpful when  some of 
> the environmentalists dismiss this as an "exception".
>
> Very cheering to see more physicists beginning to question the global 
> warming scam. It's being the marketeers' dream especially the Carbon 
> Footprint campaign which has made many many people very rich.
>
> It would definitely be better to design societies that can respond 
> flexibly to global warming or another ice age. Of course another ice  age 
> would be the ultimate challenge that would make global warming  infinitely 
> preferable.
>
> Frank
>
> On 26 Nov 2009, at 21:27, Nick Green wrote:
>
>> Thanks Stuart. It has tied down von Foerster's contribution for me.
>>
>> But Frank's point about greater energy consumption per capita is  well 
>> made. At least everyone is focussed on low energy solutions  these days.
>>
>> It seems churlish to go on about the misperceived evils of carbon 
>> dioxide but not inappropriate now America has made a decision to get 
>> involved- to adopt the Precautionary Principle.
>>
>> Few physicist friends seem impressed by the science behind Global 
>> Warming. Now Freeman Dyson can be added to that list. Pask had no  time 
>> for the Greens' "claptrap" as he was heard to say once. At the  time I 
>> was happily working on a contract for Greenpeace to improve  electrical 
>> chemical analysis methods and the "clouds are the thing"  position came 
>> out of precipitation and albino discussions. Recall  also in the sixties, 
>> based on astro/geo data, climatologists had us  entering a new ice age. 
>> Today some say ice cores show temp increase  preceding CO2 increase.
>>
>> Tremendous irony, though, for vegetarian pacifist friends who see  their 
>> campaign for conservation taken up by the military to produce  a solar 
>> from space solution (as per the Next 100 years scenario).  Friedman will 
>> have beamed microwaves as the means of transmission  (which may heat the 
>> atmosphere to some extent). For work in space  surely a space elevator is 
>> the real answer. It might heat less and  calculations on a tapered cable 
>> show perfection of long carbon  nanotubes, as current costing fashions 
>> dictate, may not be  necessary. All I can say is thank heavens this work 
>> is all in public.
>>
>> Incidentally Pask's "no causality can be proved within circularity"  can 
>> be made tractable in considering the products of concurrent  homeostatic 
>> processes. Applicable design rules from his theory  haven't emerged yet.
>>
>> Best
>>
>> N.
>>
>> PS
>> One of Lovelock's famine cards is the decrease of productivity in a  warm 
>> ocean. We now know most biomass is microbial and sub microbial. 
>> Considering the facile exchange of DNA at this level surely an 
>> adaptation in the primary food chain would not be long in coming if 
>> needed.
>>
>>
>> --------------------------------------------------
>> From: "Stuart Umpleby" <[log in to unmask]>
>> Sent: Wednesday, November 25, 2009 10:29 PM
>> To: <[log in to unmask]>
>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)
>>
>>> Heinz von Foerster published an article on world population in  Science
>>> magazine in 1960, 8 years before Paul Ehrlich's book The Population
>>> Bomb.  It generated a VERY entertaining exchange of letters in
>>> Science.  See
>>> http://www.gwu.edu/~umpleby/world_population/index.html
>>> Currently world population is growing at about 80 million a year.   The
>>> Economist recently had a cover story saying that growth rates are
>>> declining rapidly.
>>> Heinz's point was that about 2026 will be a time of instability in  the
>>> relationship between human beings and the environment.  According to
>>> the World 3 model from the Club of Rome (1972), about 2025 will  mark a
>>> transition from rising to falling world population.  I have heard
>>> people in Washington, DC, say that the Club of Rome models are  invalid
>>> because their predictions did not come true, but the turning point is
>>> still 15 years (approximately) in the future.  I think the models  have
>>> held up pretty well.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Nov 25, 2009 at 5:14 PM, Frank Wood <[log in to unmask]
>>> > wrote:
>>>> Hi Nick,
>>>> someone whose name I can't remember has had his writings on 
>>>> overpopulation
>>>> revived and people now are listening to him.
>>>> Birth *rate* might be declining but unfortunately that the  population 
>>>> is
>>>> still rising. And the means more and more resources being used up  and 
>>>> if you
>>>> subscribe to the greenhouse gas stuff then that means more humans 
>>>> emitting
>>>> co2 more livestock to feed those humans which means more methane  being
>>>> produced and so on. It doesn't seem that those authorities have  keyed 
>>>> the
>>>> above factors in.
>>>> Frank
>>>> On 25 Nov 2009, at 20:57, Nick Green wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Hi Russell, Doug, Frank
>>>>
>>>> Well happy birthday to CSIRAC. Of course joules per bit were  enormous 
>>>> then
>>>> and we are working on the single electron transistor .i.e everyone  is
>>>> working on low power if only because batteries cannot improve much  and
>>>> everybody wants long life viable mobile devices.
>>>> On population people are saying that birth rate decline is pretty  well
>>>> universal but freedom of choice in this is denied by the Pope and 
>>>> Muslims
>>>> which is certainly not politically correct. As it happens nobody,  even 
>>>> the
>>>> devotees, pays much attention to them on this but there is an
>>>> unsustainable fuss about it. Note also some authorities are 
>>>> comfortable with
>>>> a world population of 1000 billion. We don't all live in Japan or 
>>>> London -
>>>> recall Marchetti "A check on the earth-carrying capacity for man"- 
>>>> given out
>>>> at Cwarel Isaf 2? Didn't somebody once say we could all live on  the 
>>>> Isle of
>>>> Wight if suitably packed?
>>>>
>>>> On Enron, Doug check out SuperFreakonomics- apparently they were  open 
>>>> about
>>>> what they were doing within financial reporting laws anyway. The  Big 
>>>> Six
>>>> auditors are right - nobody understands company accounts. Lay's 25 
>>>> year
>>>> sentence in high security (i.e. vicious prison) seems excessive to 
>>>> Levitt
>>>> and Dubner.
>>>>
>>>> But take this on board. CO2 has had a bad rap. It's regarded as a 
>>>> poison.
>>>> It's not: it's the basis of all the food we eat. So eat more and  save 
>>>> the
>>>> planet? Water and clouds are far more influential on climate and  your 
>>>> own
>>>> CSIRO sustainability group  found a small increase in cloud cover 
>>>> would put
>>>> climate back in recent range. On air conditioning hmm- there are 
>>>> better
>>>> ways....
>>>>
>>>> Trouble is we don't understand cloud homeostasis. Recently CSIRO 
>>>> reported
>>>> aerobacter aerogenes (a bacterium from tree leaves) might be  important 
>>>> in
>>>> seeding clouds for rain.
>>>>
>>>> But you are right Russell this is nothing to do with Friedman's   The 
>>>> Next
>>>> 100 Years. No climate wars just trade wars and the superstitions  of 
>>>> the poor
>>>> exploited by a frightened risk averse elite. There may be many  faults 
>>>> in his
>>>> approach one is that he doesn't factor in improved education and
>>>> control from the web (where luck is not the product of  propitiating 
>>>> the Gods
>>>> but measuring the variance) or improved (democratic)  accountability. 
>>>> Also in
>>>> the robotized wars Friedman forecasts (Turkey vs Poland, Japan vs 
>>>> America)
>>>> casualties will not be high.  Fanciful maybe, fascinating  certainly 
>>>> but we
>>>> must consider possible scenarios. Homeostasis is a stern mistress  and, 
>>>> says
>>>> Pask, because of the circular nature causality cannot be proved. A 
>>>> naive
>>>> science reduces us to superstition but at least we get a  familiarity 
>>>> with
>>>> the tools of good science.
>>>>
>>>> Best
>>>>
>>>> N.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> From: Frank Wood
>>>> Sent: Wednesday, November 25, 2009 6:56 PM
>>>> To: [log in to unmask]
>>>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)
>>>> Not to mention that overpopulation is and will be a major cause of
>>>> environmental degradation.  But of course it's non PC to talk about
>>>> population control.
>>>> Frank
>>>> On 25 Nov 2009, at 12:00, russell_c wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Nick
>>>>
>>>> I'm not sure this is on topic, but this CSIRAC story (below) came 
>>>> through
>>>> today and caused me to reflect on a comment (by Staford I think?)  that 
>>>> "they
>>>> will find the cause" to a major US power outage (a $2.50 relay?).
>>>>
>>>> Why are we blaming climate change causes on CO2 when the energy 
>>>> increases
>>>> have a lot to do with the complexities related to power station 
>>>> upgrades
>>>> needed for PC proliferation, building air-conditioning capacity 
>>>> increases,
>>>> flat plasma screens and additional housing demand due to family  break 
>>>> down
>>>> etc.
>>>>
>>>> In respect to heat and power production -- are there any estimates  of 
>>>> the
>>>> energy generation involved in the growth of ICT and Internet over  the 
>>>> 60
>>>> years from when this machine came to be? (there is a picture with  the 
>>>> story)
>>>>
>>>> Is this technology phenomena equally the cause of climate change  and 
>>>> can it
>>>> be somehow statistically correlated to CO2 increases?
>>>>
>>>> Russell
>>>>
>>>> Australia's first 'iPod' marks 60th birthday
>>>>
>>>> "The CSIRAC - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research 
>>>> organisation
>>>> Automatic Computer - is housed in the state's museum and has today 
>>>> been
>>>> granted heritage listing as part of its birthday celebrations.
>>>>
>>>> It is the first computer ever to be made in Australia; the fourth 
>>>> computer
>>>> ever to be made in the world; and the only first generation  computer 
>>>> that
>>>> remains intact. . . ."
>>>>
>>>> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2752781.htm
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> [snip]
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For  more
>>>> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum  Collaborative
>>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org  METAPHORUM 
>>>> eList
>>>> Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at -
>>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>>
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For  more
>>>> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum  Collaborative
>>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org  METAPHORUM 
>>>> eList
>>>> Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at -
>>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For  more
>>>> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum  Collaborative
>>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org  METAPHORUM 
>>>> eList
>>>> Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at -
>>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>>
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For  more
>>>> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum  Collaborative
>>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org  METAPHORUM 
>>>> eList
>>>> Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at -
>>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
>>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -- 
>>> Stuart Umpleby, Research Program in Social and Organizational  Learning
>>> 2033 K Street NW, Suite 230, The George Washington University,
>>> Washington, DC 20052
>>> www.gwu.edu/~umpleby, tel. 202-994-1642, fax 202-994-5284
>>>
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>>>
>>> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: 
>>> www.platformforchange.org
>>>
>>> METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - 
>>> https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>>>
>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - 
>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>>
>> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: 
>> www.platformforchange.org
>>
>> METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - 
>> https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>>
>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - 
>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>
> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: 
> www.platformforchange.org
>
> METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - 
> https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>
> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - 
> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org

For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:  www.platformforchange.org

METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html

Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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