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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  November 2009

UCD-STAFFORDBEER November 2009

Subject:

Re: The Next 100 Years ($2.50 causes ***in hospitals***)

From:

Nick Green <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:05:37 -0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (600 lines)

Yes Frank I'm afraid a few criminal prosecutions are long overdue. Indeed a 
couple of years ago I sat briefly on a local police liaison board. I told 
the Chief Super there was more grave crime committed in Hospitals than in 
the High Street (Camden). He harrumphed and muttered something about it 
being a matter for the Home Office. Anyway a few weeks later his opposite 
number in Islington (a nearby London Borough) did an "executive life swap" 
for a week with the head of a large hospital trust- so there may be some 
hope. I'd say the police here are well aware of what is going on but it 
needs a nice open and shut case to turn things round. But we must continue 
to press for reform here. A few years ago I did this website which attempted 
to alert people to these problems. http://www.ppif.org.uk/. VSM long overdue 
here.

We're a long way from being able to sign up to any euthanasia program with 
any confidence.

Best

N.

--------------------------------------------------
From: "Frank Wood" <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Sunday, November 29, 2009 4:05 PM
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years ($2.50 causes ***in hospitals***)

> I'm glad, Nick, you've highlighted the myth of the overworked hospital 
> doctor.
>
> I had a friend who said that when they work "long hours" much of that 
> time they spend sleeping in their  bunks at the hospital as they are  paid 
> to be on standby. Nothing wrong with that but we are fed the  nonsense 
> that they are over worked. Ditto for nurses and supporting  staff if your 
> calculations are right.
>
> I have listened to horror stories from people who have visited  hopsitals 
> to see patients. It's not overwork that's causing the  errors, it's a 
> "couldn't give a damn" attitude. Again we're fed with  the image of nurses 
> as angels. Sure there are some good ones but the  ones I observe are 
> patronising at best and almost downright evil at  worst.
>
> A friend of mine fell (their story) when she attempted to get off the 
> toilet. They found her unconscious on the floor. We don't know how  long 
> she was there for and we don't know if that fall hastened her  death a few 
> days later.
>
> I've heard from friends and relatives of two cases where charts were  left 
> on the wrong beds.
>
> If these people were sent to jail then they might start caring and  doing 
> the job they are paid to do.
>
> On the railways you only have to endanger life to risk getting a jail 
> sentence.
>
> Frank
>
> On 29 Nov 2009, at 15:10, Nick Green wrote:
>
>> Right yes, Luc, a rather poor joke by me. You can see Latour  modernity 
>> by-passed in, of all things, medicine.
>>
>> In UK news today there's a text book example of the irresponsible 
>> science- politics nexus from the basically unaccountable National  Health 
>> Service. Unaccountable because error rates have no formal  controls and 
>> were barely counted at all until recently. Reporting of  errors by 
>> anybody is resisted rather than welcomed as vital feedback.
>>
>> Some years ago Sir Brian Jarman (ex Chairman of British Medical 
>> Association- the Doctors trade union) realised that people die in 
>> hospital for the wrong reasons. His analysis of patient risk and 
>> viability bears some study. He addresses preventable errors (e.g.  Poor 
>> nursing care, misdiagnosis, filthy wards producing unnecessary  deaths) 
>> in UK hospitals. Learned references are given at the  Imperial College 
>> site.
>>
>> BBC Reports
>> http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2009/nov/29/nhs-hospitals-safety-report
>> Dr Foster website
>> http://www.drfosterintelligence.co.uk/
>> University base
>> http://www1.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/about/divisions/ephpc/pcsm/research/drfosters/
>>
>> Usual story: ghastly bureaucrats with no incentive for quality doing 
>> fuck all or nothing as we say in polite society. Add in the elite: 
>> surgeons who by and large won't work at weekends,  on Fridays or 
>> Wednesday afternoons.
>>
>> The name Dr Foster ( a character who avoids unpleasantness) comes  from 
>> the children's nursery rhyme. As a word "foster" means nurture.
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctor_Foster
>>
>> The NHS is basically a low pay uneducated culture: in hospitals  about 
>> 75,000 autopoietic and underworked doctors are supported by  more than 1 
>> million (mostly low pay) staff serving, at any one time  about, 185,000 
>> patients in a bed. That is an extraordinary variety  equation. Fewer 
>> staff getting in each others way and more hand  washing would be the 
>> "$2.50 relay" solution here. Far too much  statistically naive (false 
>> positive rates are largely unknown) time  wasting ritual bullshit that 
>> only the gullible can believe survives  in UK's NHS -and elsewhere I 
>> wouldn't doubt.
>>
>> Best
>>
>> N.
>>
>>
>> From: Luc Hoebeke
>> Sent: Sunday, November 29, 2009 8:23 AM
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years ($2.50 causes)
>>
>>
>> Dear Nick,
>>
>>
>> No missing vowel. In Serb and Croat languages this r is pronounced  er as 
>> in her.
>> Having followed this thread, I learn how the old responsibility  avoiding 
>> mechanism between Pope and Emperor has shifted towards  Science and 
>> Politics. We never have been modern as Bruno Latour  eloquently argues in 
>> his book with the same title.
>>
>>
>> Kind regards,
>>
>>
>> Luc
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Op 29-nov-09, om 03:17 heeft Nick Green het volgende geschreven:
>>
>>
>>
>> Brklacic an imperfect clone of Stafford? The missing vowel in his  name 
>> surely proves this. Anyway New Scientist went with this saying  this week 
>> "Climate researchers have been inundated with what feels  like malicious 
>> demands for their data" Why aren't the data  downloadable and come to 
>> that how about a listing of their program -  like the Meadows etc did 
>> with Limits to Growth.
>>
>>
>> From: russell_c
>> Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 9:53 PM
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years ($2.50 causes)
>>
>>
>> And just when you thought is was safe to believe the simple story:
>>
>>
>> "Hacked climate change email furore" -- Hacked climate change emails  - a 
>> tempest in a teapot or a real storm? Paul Jay talks to Michael  Brklacic, 
>> November 28, 2009.
>>
>> http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=4533
>>
>>
>> Again, at the end, "... don't latch on to one or two pieces of  [$2.50] 
>> evidence ...", hmmmm?
>>
>> rc
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 10:30 PM, Doug McDavid  <[log in to unmask]> 
>> wrote:
>>
>> This thread alone is worth the price of admission!  Great stuff!
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 4:28 AM, Frank Wood <[log in to unmask]
>> > wrote:
>>> Ha ha, love the "marginal seat theory!" Where on earth did we get  the 
>>> idea
>>> that we humans are rational beings!
>>> Yeh, we're extremely rational in the context of greed and power and  the
>>> notion of power extends to the "I'm right and you're wrong"  attitude. 
>>> That
>>> is why your carefully balanced approach is the way to go.
>>> Regards
>>> Frank
>>> On 28 Nov 2009, at 12:12, russell_c wrote:
>>>
>>> Thanks Frank,
>>>
>>> ... and yes, there is that zeal is creeping in, and unfortunately,  many
>>> opportunists can smell a "win" ... and that will surely attract the 
>>> "lovers
>>> of winning" ... and so, off we go on another round of tail chasing. 
>>> It's not
>>> that they are completely wrong, just not completely right, and the
>>> simplicity of over self confidence is always a concern. One step  closer 
>>> to
>>> blind fundamentalism?
>>>
>>> Oh, and thanks for the agricultural angle. Guess what: not only is 
>>> Australia
>>> not responsible for the coal based greenhouse gasses that China 
>>> produces
>>> from burning the stuff we export to them; but also the farming  lobby 
>>> here
>>> has successfully managed to get exclusions from the emissions  trading 
>>> system
>>> being proposed! It is called "marginal seat theory" I think! (see:
>>> http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/ 0,23739,26350929-953,00.html )
>>>
>>> Now we know there are a lot of sheep (and cattle) down here, and  some 
>>> even
>>> have learned to walk on two legs, and vote, but this type of partial
>>> partisan response will just distort the whole by over weighting the 
>>> load on
>>> those other parts that cannot afford the right lobbyists.
>>>
>>> You have nailed it here imo -- "... develop sustainable societies  that
>>> effectively respond". Unfortunately, while economics theory and  praxis
>>> cannot operate outside/beyond the "Growth" paradigm, we will just  have 
>>> to
>>> communicate in that weird language that growing small is not  shrinking!
>>> Pulling out is not surrendering, stopping is not failing, etc...
>>>
>>> Mind numbing! So, surely, one of the functions of groups like this is
>>> ensuring that we can see more clearly through what is happening and
>>> communicate with others as Margaret Mead implied:
>>>
>>> I specifically want to consider the significance of the set of
>>> cross-disciplinary ideas which we first called 'feed-back' and then 
>>> called
>>> 'teleological mechanisms' and then called 'cybernetics' -- a form of
>>> cross-disciplinary thought which made it possible for members of many
>>> disciplines to communicate with each other easily in a language  which 
>>> all
>>> could understand. (cited in
>>> http://www.stanford.edu/group/SHR/4-2/text/foerster.html )
>>>
>>> Unfortunately reasonable climate science speculation (e.g. Lovelock  et 
>>> al)
>>> is being used for partisan corporate politics and unsustainable  policy
>>> implementation! BAU I'm afraid.
>>>
>>> Cheers
>>> Russell
>>>
>>> p.s.  Oh, BTW, the other $2.50 cause is the 80% of CO2 human activity
>>> systems living on less than $2.50 per day! And as mobile phone 
>>> penetration
>>> heads into the exponential in developing economies (e.g. see  various 
>>> World
>>> Bank reports) we will see more awareness of the differentials  between 
>>> rich
>>> and poor ... and we may start to hear echos of those famous 17th C 
>>> French
>>> words "Let them eat cake!".
>>>
>>> On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 7:19 PM, Frank Wood <[log in to unmask]
>>> >
>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Great piece of writing Russell. The biting irony is that it is the
>>>> environmentalists that are the reductionists with their $2.50 relay
>>>> attitude.
>>>> There are so many vested interests on both sides of the debate  that 
>>>> any
>>>> genuine enquiry into what should be done gets lost.
>>>> To add to the complexity, I saw part of a TV programme a few days  ago 
>>>> (it
>>>> was to do with Obama's carbon reduction campaign) which said that  most 
>>>> of
>>>> the "greenhouse gas" was caused by food production.
>>>> Here is an article that lends support to this assertion.
>>>> Rearing cattle produces more greenhouse gases than driving cars,  UN 
>>>> report
>>>> warns
>>>> http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=20772&Cr=global&Cr1=warming
>>>> and another article on the proposed remedy.
>>>> 'Burpless' Grass Cuts Methane Gas From Cattle, May Help Reduce  Global
>>>> Warming
>>>> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080506120859.htm
>>>> but here again dear old complexity rears its head again. And of  course
>>>> there is the issue of gene modification. Oh dear.
>>>> We expect in our campaign to cut down CO2, that third world  countries 
>>>> to
>>>> cut down or cease logging. Of course these countries see through our
>>>> hypocrisy. Consider that the UK used to be almost covered in  forests 
>>>> and
>>>> now....
>>>> I still think that we must develop sustainable societies that 
>>>> effectively
>>>> respond to climate change (whether it be warming or cooling) and  worry 
>>>> less
>>>> about Gaia as that old girl is going to do her own sweet thing  anyway.
>>>> Frank
>>>>
>>>> On 28 Nov 2009, at 00:55, russell_c wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Hi Nick,
>>>>
>>>> Re: $2.50 causes
>>>>
>>>> Yes, I still don't know whether I fully 'get it' in respect to this
>>>> example either. I came to a similar conclusion as yourself about the
>>>> multiple causes -- with one additional aspect: it was also a  comment 
>>>> about
>>>> reductionist ways of thinking in respect to complex problems.
>>>>
>>>> I think the author was pointing to the phenomena of a whole 
>>>> organisational
>>>> system straining to get the simple answer as a cause. It (ie those  in 
>>>> it)
>>>> fears the looming circularity of deep systemic investigation.
>>>>
>>>> The $2.50 climate change cause 'issue' is said to be CO2, or  'carbon',
>>>> reflecting the escaping output sun rays/energy and thus bouncing  them 
>>>> back
>>>> to earth.
>>>>
>>>> And of course, as in all these things, the underlying assumptions  are 
>>>> not
>>>> often questioned. We assume that this heating phenomena is not the 
>>>> Gaia
>>>> system (of which we, by definition, must be a significant thinking 
>>>> part)
>>>> working in its own time scale to extend our happy modern existence 
>>>> between
>>>> the next pending 10,000 year interglacial cold cycle.
>>>>
>>>> One can take that 1974 Time article and replace a few key words  and we
>>>> have the same media-message being run today -- the sky will fall,  the 
>>>> crops
>>>> won't grow, the hens won't lay ... touching almost every deeply  held 
>>>> often
>>>> neurotic fear we have as a society, culture and empire. So how do  we 
>>>> know
>>>> the truth? We cannot, and so acting on the precautionary principle  is 
>>>> the
>>>> best defense. But again, what to do, or not do?
>>>>
>>>> What I'm really pointing to is the same phenomena that says bin  Laden
>>>> caused the Twin Towers attack and not the red flag of US foreign 
>>>> policy etc.
>>>> It is the cultural/systemic blindness to the bigger systemic 
>>>> picture.(*) I
>>>> saw it as a comment on the way 'the system' works -- i.e. who are  the 
>>>> 'they'
>>>> that will find the cause? IMO, they are the believers in their own
>>>> confidences -- whatever side they take in a situation of concern.  As 
>>>> Frank
>>>> said: we need more humility by scientists.
>>>>
>>>> But the rush is on. And so now it is not science and its quest for 
>>>> truth
>>>> and answers: it is politics and its power games. But what else can  be 
>>>> done?
>>>> Adaptation is the secondary theme in the climate change debate but  it 
>>>> is not
>>>> much focused on by the media. Why? Because it means operating  system 
>>>> change
>>>> (to use the computing analogy), not just program change. And can  we 
>>>> trust
>>>> systems programmers? Who are they working for? I think the elites  are 
>>>> not
>>>> yet certain of where they can stand safely in the wash up, and so 
>>>> things are
>>>> more complex than they need to be.
>>>>
>>>> Instead of CO2, why don't we start with population, blame the  medical
>>>> sciences for stopping malaria, polio, plague, etc without also 
>>>> implementing
>>>> birth control and sustainable socio-economic reform? What about  the 
>>>> other
>>>> 'club of rome' that will not support birth control etc? We will 
>>>> willingly
>>>> look at plant food (CO2) as the enemy, but not the local doctor  who is
>>>> working beyond his/her wellbeing limits, usually on a healthy  state 
>>>> subsidy,
>>>> to save CO2 producing humans (you & I) who should perhaps cease this
>>>> function permanently. Where do we stop? A $2.50 cause is all we  need 
>>>> to stop
>>>> the process of systemic change occurring naturally.
>>>>
>>>> One opportunity all this offers is a wide window on science studies.
>>>>
>>>> Russell
>>>>
>>>> (*) BTW, on my way out the door yesterday (c.o.b. Friday) a young  lady
>>>> came running past straight from a 1-day management guru seminar by 
>>>> some
>>>> professor x, and showed me a slide that said tomorrows leaders  will 
>>>> need,
>>>> guess what, yes, "systems thinking". Oh, dear, here we go again! I 
>>>> responded
>>>> that it will drive them mad if they try, and that imo leadership  is so
>>>> 'yesterday', as is management -- and that we are entering a heroic 
>>>> stage.
>>>> G-d help us!
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Fri, Nov 27, 2009 at 11:39 PM, Nick Green 
>>>> <[log in to unmask]
>>>> >
>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Thanks Russell.
>>>>>
>>>>> Re your previous on the $2.50 relay.
>>>>>
>>>>> Both Stafford and Gordon emphasised multiple causes. So why did  the 
>>>>> relay
>>>>> fail etc.  I have to say I didn't really "get it" at first  because 
>>>>> like any
>>>>> other operational Joe I would go to stores and replace the relay  job 
>>>>> done.
>>>>> But Pask and Beer wanted to look at how the relay was designed, 
>>>>> managed etc
>>>>> I eventually concluded. One can be very thick sometimes.  Pask 
>>>>> preferred
>>>>> "produces" rather than "causes". It's that circular causality  problem 
>>>>> again,
>>>>> Does the spark cause the explosion or the presence of petrol  vapour. 
>>>>> We know
>>>>> the product of spark, petrol vapour and oxygen is an explosion  but 
>>>>> there is
>>>>> no single cause. Connect a bulb to a battery. Go away. Come back,  The 
>>>>> bulb
>>>>> is out. Why? There's no way of telling until each component is  tested 
>>>>> in
>>>>> another trusted circular system: the bulb, the 4 connections, the  2 
>>>>> leads,
>>>>> the battery. All this means something for Climate change etc- not 
>>>>> sure quite
>>>>> what-yet.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> From: russell_c
>>>>> Sent: Friday, November 27, 2009 10:25 AM
>>>>> To: [log in to unmask]
>>>>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)
>>>>> If anyone is interested in this CSIRO 'report card' released  today 
>>>>> (27th)
>>>>> then see:
>>>>> http://www.csiro.au/multimedia/Marine-report-card.html and
>>>>> http://www.oceanclimatechange.org.au/content/index.php/site/ welcome/
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, Nov 25, 2009 at 8:00 PM, russell_c <[log in to unmask]>  wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Nick
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I'm not sure this is on topic, but this CSIRAC story (below) came
>>>>>> through today and caused me to reflect on a comment (by Staford  I 
>>>>>> think?)
>>>>>> that "they will find the cause" to a major US power outage (a  $2.50 
>>>>>> relay?).
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Why are we blaming climate change causes on CO2 when the energy
>>>>>> increases have a lot to do with the complexities related to  power 
>>>>>> station
>>>>>> upgrades needed for PC proliferation, building air-conditioning 
>>>>>> capacity
>>>>>> increases, flat plasma screens and additional housing demand due  to 
>>>>>> family
>>>>>> break down etc.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In respect to heat and power production -- are there any  estimates 
>>>>>> of
>>>>>> the energy generation involved in the growth of ICT and Internet 
>>>>>> over the 60
>>>>>> years from when this machine came to be? (there is a picture  with 
>>>>>> the story)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Is this technology phenomena equally the cause of climate change  and 
>>>>>> can
>>>>>> it be somehow statistically correlated to CO2 increases?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Russell
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Australia's first 'iPod' marks 60th birthday
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "The CSIRAC - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
>>>>>> organisation Automatic Computer - is housed in the state's  museum 
>>>>>> and has
>>>>>> today been granted heritage listing as part of its birthday 
>>>>>> celebrations.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It is the first computer ever to be made in Australia; the fourth
>>>>>> computer ever to be made in the world; and the only first  generation
>>>>>> computer that remains intact. . . ."
>>>>>>
>>>>>> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2752781.htm
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> [snip]
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>
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>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> Doug McDavid
>> [log in to unmask]
>> 916-549-4600
>>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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