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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  November 2009

UCD-STAFFORDBEER November 2009

Subject:

Re: The Next 100 Years ($2.50 causes ***in hospitals***)

From:

Nick Green <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 29 Nov 2009 20:31:51 -0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (616 lines)

Dear Luc,

Just as I write this my old friend from Liverpool has rung me to say her son
has just caught an MRSA infection, she says, for the 5th time (he is a
kidney patient on dialysis). In the UK despite ten years of reminders from
the Parliamentary Health Committee NHS only started recording Hospital
Acquired Infections at all four or five years ago and by type two or three
years ago. Unbelievable but true.

Yes Pask would talk of discussing his symptoms with a General Physician as
the right way with these things. That is if you can find a General
Physician- they are very rare in London. Most are specialists.

But there is a straight forward "decision making under uncertainty"
solution. Say you have a diagnostic error rate of 25%. If you can have ten
physicians agree the diagnosis independently (blind of previous findings)
that will produce and error rate of 1 part per million. Accurate diagnosis
would save a lot of time and money. But to the doctor a compliant agreeable
patient is what is wanted.

However note in UK 50% of death certificates are wrong so establishing a
"Gold Standard" post mortem confirmation of diagnosis is elusive unless
randomly selected patients (why not all? or a lot more than the 5% we get
here rather than the 10% recommended) are subject to Post Mortem
examination. Heart disease and cancer, for example, are routinely over
diagnosed. See http://jcp.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/55/7/499

There's a doctor and newspaper columnist called Ben Goldacre a self
appointed Bad Science expert. I posted these error rates to his website. He
went into total denial as my posting mysteriously disappeared. "Never
happened before" he said then added "we though you were just knocking the
NHS". He doesn't know the bounds on his own discipline. Trouble is critics
of science are rare I guess its one role for the cybernetician. But there
are radical souls. In 2004 Richard Smith the editor of the British Medical
Journal asked "Is surgery an anachronism in an evidence based age?" and
complains that medical journals have become the creatures of the
pharmacology industry "rife with fraudulent research". Then there's a GP,
Vernon Coleman, who writes a book "How to stop your doctor killing you".

Best

N.
--------------------------------------------------
From: "Luc Hoebeke" <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Sunday, November 29, 2009 3:48 PM
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years ($2.50 causes ***in hospitals***)

> Dear Nick,
>
> The medical ethos is the same as the "would be climate healers". Medicine
> as a science is a misnomer, it is still an art. Art is not interested in
> mastering or controlling "reality", but in interacting with it and
> continuously learning from successes and failures in those interactions.
> The expectation that MD's could be responsible for my health, my life is
> a way in which the patient also colludes with the attributed power of the
> medical profession. Patients also could require from their nurses and
> their doctors that at least they behave as human beings relating to human
> beings and not as mechanics dealing with bladders, arteries, etc. But
> again, shifting responsibility is the name of the game. So eg., at once
> euthanasy becomes a problem for the doctors, the lawmakers and the
> judges.
> Remember that our dear friend Arthur is the first one interested in
> flight safety, because he is the pilot. Perhaps patients and their family
> should have a bigger say in hospital safety, because they are the pilots
> in that case. But I am sure that not many of them would like to take up
> that responsibility. Much easier is the blaming game.
>
> Kind regards,
>
> Luc
>
>
> Op 29-nov-09, om 16:10 heeft Nick Green het volgende geschreven:
>
>> Right yes, Luc, a rather poor joke by me. You can see Latour modernity
>> by-passed in, of all things, medicine.
>>
>> In UK news today there's a text book example of the irresponsible
>> science- politics nexus from the basically unaccountable National Health
>> Service. Unaccountable because error rates have no formal controls and
>> were barely counted at all until recently. Reporting of errors by
>> anybody is resisted rather than welcomed as vital feedback.
>>
>> Some years ago Sir Brian Jarman (ex Chairman of British Medical
>> Association- the Doctors trade union) realised that people die in
>> hospital for the wrong reasons. His analysis of patient risk and
>> viability bears some study. He addresses preventable errors (e.g. Poor
>> nursing care, misdiagnosis, filthy wards producing unnecessary deaths)
>> in UK hospitals. Learned references are given at the Imperial College
>> site.
>>
>> BBC Reports
>> http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2009/nov/29/nhs-hospitals-safety-report
>> Dr Foster website
>> http://www.drfosterintelligence.co.uk/
>> University base
>> http://www1.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/about/divisions/ephpc/pcsm/research/drfosters/
>>
>> Usual story: ghastly bureaucrats with no incentive for quality doing
>> fuck all or nothing as we say in polite society. Add in the elite:
>> surgeons who by and large won't work at weekends, on Fridays or
>> Wednesday afternoons.
>>
>> The name Dr Foster ( a character who avoids unpleasantness) comes from
>> the children's nursery rhyme. As a word "foster" means nurture.
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctor_Foster
>>
>> The NHS is basically a low pay uneducated culture: in hospitals about
>> 75,000 autopoietic and underworked doctors are supported by more than 1
>> million (mostly low pay) staff serving, at any one time about, 185,000
>> patients in a bed. That is an extraordinary variety equation. Fewer
>> staff getting in each others way and more hand washing would be the
>> "$2.50 relay" solution here. Far too much statistically naive (false
>> positive rates are largely unknown) time wasting ritual bullshit that
>> only the gullible can believe survives in UK's NHS -and elsewhere I
>> wouldn't doubt.
>>
>> Best
>>
>> N.
>>
>>
>> From: Luc Hoebeke
>> Sent: Sunday, November 29, 2009 8:23 AM
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years ($2.50 causes)
>>
>>
>> Dear Nick,
>>
>>
>> No missing vowel. In Serb and Croat languages this r is pronounced er as
>> in her.
>> Having followed this thread, I learn how the old responsibility avoiding
>> mechanism between Pope and Emperor has shifted towards Science and
>> Politics. We never have been modern as Bruno Latour eloquently argues in
>> his book with the same title.
>>
>>
>> Kind regards,
>>
>>
>> Luc
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Op 29-nov-09, om 03:17 heeft Nick Green het volgende geschreven:
>>
>>
>>
>> Brklacic an imperfect clone of Stafford? The missing vowel in his name
>> surely proves this. Anyway New Scientist went with this saying this week
>> "Climate researchers have been inundated with what feels like malicious
>> demands for their data" Why aren't the data downloadable and come to
>> that how about a listing of their program - like the Meadows etc did
>> with Limits to Growth.
>>
>>
>> From: russell_c
>> Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 9:53 PM
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years ($2.50 causes)
>>
>>
>> And just when you thought is was safe to believe the simple story:
>>
>>
>> "Hacked climate change email furore" -- Hacked climate change emails - a
>> tempest in a teapot or a real storm? Paul Jay talks to Michael Brklacic,
>> November 28, 2009.
>>
>> http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=4533
>>
>>
>> Again, at the end, "... don't latch on to one or two pieces of [$2.50]
>> evidence ...", hmmmm?
>>
>> rc
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 10:30 PM, Doug McDavid <[log in to unmask]>
>> wrote:
>>
>> This thread alone is worth the price of admission! Great stuff!
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 4:28 AM, Frank Wood <[log in to unmask]
>> > wrote:
>>> Ha ha, love the "marginal seat theory!" Where on earth did we get the
>>> idea
>>> that we humans are rational beings!
>>> Yeh, we're extremely rational in the context of greed and power and the
>>> notion of power extends to the "I'm right and you're wrong" attitude.
>>> That
>>> is why your carefully balanced approach is the way to go.
>>> Regards
>>> Frank
>>> On 28 Nov 2009, at 12:12, russell_c wrote:
>>>
>>> Thanks Frank,
>>>
>>> ... and yes, there is that zeal is creeping in, and unfortunately, many
>>> opportunists can smell a "win" ... and that will surely attract the
>>> "lovers
>>> of winning" ... and so, off we go on another round of tail chasing.
>>> It's not
>>> that they are completely wrong, just not completely right, and the
>>> simplicity of over self confidence is always a concern. One step closer
>>> to
>>> blind fundamentalism?
>>>
>>> Oh, and thanks for the agricultural angle. Guess what: not only is
>>> Australia
>>> not responsible for the coal based greenhouse gasses that China
>>> produces
>>> from burning the stuff we export to them; but also the farming lobby
>>> here
>>> has successfully managed to get exclusions from the emissions trading
>>> system
>>> being proposed! It is called "marginal seat theory" I think! (see:
>>> http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/ 0,23739,26350929-953,00.html )
>>>
>>> Now we know there are a lot of sheep (and cattle) down here, and some
>>> even
>>> have learned to walk on two legs, and vote, but this type of partial
>>> partisan response will just distort the whole by over weighting the
>>> load on
>>> those other parts that cannot afford the right lobbyists.
>>>
>>> You have nailed it here imo -- "... develop sustainable societies that
>>> effectively respond". Unfortunately, while economics theory and praxis
>>> cannot operate outside/beyond the "Growth" paradigm, we will just have
>>> to
>>> communicate in that weird language that growing small is not shrinking!
>>> Pulling out is not surrendering, stopping is not failing, etc...
>>>
>>> Mind numbing! So, surely, one of the functions of groups like this is
>>> ensuring that we can see more clearly through what is happening and
>>> communicate with others as Margaret Mead implied:
>>>
>>> I specifically want to consider the significance of the set of
>>> cross-disciplinary ideas which we first called 'feed-back' and then
>>> called
>>> 'teleological mechanisms' and then called 'cybernetics' -- a form of
>>> cross-disciplinary thought which made it possible for members of many
>>> disciplines to communicate with each other easily in a language which
>>> all
>>> could understand. (cited in
>>> http://www.stanford.edu/group/SHR/4-2/text/foerster.html )
>>>
>>> Unfortunately reasonable climate science speculation (e.g. Lovelock et
>>> al)
>>> is being used for partisan corporate politics and unsustainable policy
>>> implementation! BAU I'm afraid.
>>>
>>> Cheers
>>> Russell
>>>
>>> p.s. Oh, BTW, the other $2.50 cause is the 80% of CO2 human activity
>>> systems living on less than $2.50 per day! And as mobile phone
>>> penetration
>>> heads into the exponential in developing economies (e.g. see various
>>> World
>>> Bank reports) we will see more awareness of the differentials between
>>> rich
>>> and poor ... and we may start to hear echos of those famous 17th C
>>> French
>>> words "Let them eat cake!".
>>>
>>> On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 7:19 PM, Frank Wood <[log in to unmask]
>>> >
>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Great piece of writing Russell. The biting irony is that it is the
>>>> environmentalists that are the reductionists with their $2.50 relay
>>>> attitude.
>>>> There are so many vested interests on both sides of the debate that
>>>> any
>>>> genuine enquiry into what should be done gets lost.
>>>> To add to the complexity, I saw part of a TV programme a few days ago
>>>> (it
>>>> was to do with Obama's carbon reduction campaign) which said that most
>>>> of
>>>> the "greenhouse gas" was caused by food production.
>>>> Here is an article that lends support to this assertion.
>>>> Rearing cattle produces more greenhouse gases than driving cars, UN
>>>> report
>>>> warns
>>>> http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=20772&Cr=global&Cr1=warming
>>>> and another article on the proposed remedy.
>>>> 'Burpless' Grass Cuts Methane Gas From Cattle, May Help Reduce Global
>>>> Warming
>>>> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080506120859.htm
>>>> but here again dear old complexity rears its head again. And of course
>>>> there is the issue of gene modification. Oh dear.
>>>> We expect in our campaign to cut down CO2, that third world countries
>>>> to
>>>> cut down or cease logging. Of course these countries see through our
>>>> hypocrisy. Consider that the UK used to be almost covered in forests
>>>> and
>>>> now....
>>>> I still think that we must develop sustainable societies that
>>>> effectively
>>>> respond to climate change (whether it be warming or cooling) and worry
>>>> less
>>>> about Gaia as that old girl is going to do her own sweet thing anyway.
>>>> Frank
>>>>
>>>> On 28 Nov 2009, at 00:55, russell_c wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Hi Nick,
>>>>
>>>> Re: $2.50 causes
>>>>
>>>> Yes, I still don't know whether I fully 'get it' in respect to this
>>>> example either. I came to a similar conclusion as yourself about the
>>>> multiple causes -- with one additional aspect: it was also a comment
>>>> about
>>>> reductionist ways of thinking in respect to complex problems.
>>>>
>>>> I think the author was pointing to the phenomena of a whole
>>>> organisational
>>>> system straining to get the simple answer as a cause. It (ie those in
>>>> it)
>>>> fears the looming circularity of deep systemic investigation.
>>>>
>>>> The $2.50 climate change cause 'issue' is said to be CO2, or 'carbon',
>>>> reflecting the escaping output sun rays/energy and thus bouncing them
>>>> back
>>>> to earth.
>>>>
>>>> And of course, as in all these things, the underlying assumptions are
>>>> not
>>>> often questioned. We assume that this heating phenomena is not the
>>>> Gaia
>>>> system (of which we, by definition, must be a significant thinking
>>>> part)
>>>> working in its own time scale to extend our happy modern existence
>>>> between
>>>> the next pending 10,000 year interglacial cold cycle.
>>>>
>>>> One can take that 1974 Time article and replace a few key words and we
>>>> have the same media-message being run today -- the sky will fall, the
>>>> crops
>>>> won't grow, the hens won't lay ... touching almost every deeply held
>>>> often
>>>> neurotic fear we have as a society, culture and empire. So how do we
>>>> know
>>>> the truth? We cannot, and so acting on the precautionary principle is
>>>> the
>>>> best defense. But again, what to do, or not do?
>>>>
>>>> What I'm really pointing to is the same phenomena that says bin Laden
>>>> caused the Twin Towers attack and not the red flag of US foreign
>>>> policy etc.
>>>> It is the cultural/systemic blindness to the bigger systemic
>>>> picture.(*) I
>>>> saw it as a comment on the way 'the system' works -- i.e. who are the
>>>> 'they'
>>>> that will find the cause? IMO, they are the believers in their own
>>>> confidences -- whatever side they take in a situation of concern. As
>>>> Frank
>>>> said: we need more humility by scientists.
>>>>
>>>> But the rush is on. And so now it is not science and its quest for
>>>> truth
>>>> and answers: it is politics and its power games. But what else can be
>>>> done?
>>>> Adaptation is the secondary theme in the climate change debate but it
>>>> is not
>>>> much focused on by the media. Why? Because it means operating system
>>>> change
>>>> (to use the computing analogy), not just program change. And can we
>>>> trust
>>>> systems programmers? Who are they working for? I think the elites are
>>>> not
>>>> yet certain of where they can stand safely in the wash up, and so
>>>> things are
>>>> more complex than they need to be.
>>>>
>>>> Instead of CO2, why don't we start with population, blame the medical
>>>> sciences for stopping malaria, polio, plague, etc without also
>>>> implementing
>>>> birth control and sustainable socio-economic reform? What about the
>>>> other
>>>> 'club of rome' that will not support birth control etc? We will
>>>> willingly
>>>> look at plant food (CO2) as the enemy, but not the local doctor who is
>>>> working beyond his/her wellbeing limits, usually on a healthy state
>>>> subsidy,
>>>> to save CO2 producing humans (you & I) who should perhaps cease this
>>>> function permanently. Where do we stop? A $2.50 cause is all we need
>>>> to stop
>>>> the process of systemic change occurring naturally.
>>>>
>>>> One opportunity all this offers is a wide window on science studies.
>>>>
>>>> Russell
>>>>
>>>> (*) BTW, on my way out the door yesterday (c.o.b. Friday) a young lady
>>>> came running past straight from a 1-day management guru seminar by
>>>> some
>>>> professor x, and showed me a slide that said tomorrows leaders will
>>>> need,
>>>> guess what, yes, "systems thinking". Oh, dear, here we go again! I
>>>> responded
>>>> that it will drive them mad if they try, and that imo leadership is so
>>>> 'yesterday', as is management -- and that we are entering a heroic
>>>> stage.
>>>> G-d help us!
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Fri, Nov 27, 2009 at 11:39 PM, Nick Green
>>>> <[log in to unmask]
>>>> >
>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Thanks Russell.
>>>>>
>>>>> Re your previous on the $2.50 relay.
>>>>>
>>>>> Both Stafford and Gordon emphasised multiple causes. So why did the
>>>>> relay
>>>>> fail etc. I have to say I didn't really "get it" at first because
>>>>> like any
>>>>> other operational Joe I would go to stores and replace the relay job
>>>>> done.
>>>>> But Pask and Beer wanted to look at how the relay was designed,
>>>>> managed etc
>>>>> I eventually concluded. One can be very thick sometimes. Pask
>>>>> preferred
>>>>> "produces" rather than "causes". It's that circular causality problem
>>>>> again,
>>>>> Does the spark cause the explosion or the presence of petrol vapour.
>>>>> We know
>>>>> the product of spark, petrol vapour and oxygen is an explosion but
>>>>> there is
>>>>> no single cause. Connect a bulb to a battery. Go away. Come back, The
>>>>> bulb
>>>>> is out. Why? There's no way of telling until each component is tested
>>>>> in
>>>>> another trusted circular system: the bulb, the 4 connections, the 2
>>>>> leads,
>>>>> the battery. All this means something for Climate change etc- not
>>>>> sure quite
>>>>> what-yet.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> From: russell_c
>>>>> Sent: Friday, November 27, 2009 10:25 AM
>>>>> To: [log in to unmask]
>>>>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)
>>>>> If anyone is interested in this CSIRO 'report card' released today
>>>>> (27th)
>>>>> then see:
>>>>> http://www.csiro.au/multimedia/Marine-report-card.html and
>>>>> http://www.oceanclimatechange.org.au/content/index.php/site/ welcome/
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, Nov 25, 2009 at 8:00 PM, russell_c <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Nick
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I'm not sure this is on topic, but this CSIRAC story (below) came
>>>>>> through today and caused me to reflect on a comment (by Staford I
>>>>>> think?)
>>>>>> that "they will find the cause" to a major US power outage (a $2.50
>>>>>> relay?).
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Why are we blaming climate change causes on CO2 when the energy
>>>>>> increases have a lot to do with the complexities related to power
>>>>>> station
>>>>>> upgrades needed for PC proliferation, building air-conditioning
>>>>>> capacity
>>>>>> increases, flat plasma screens and additional housing demand due to
>>>>>> family
>>>>>> break down etc.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In respect to heat and power production -- are there any estimates
>>>>>> of
>>>>>> the energy generation involved in the growth of ICT and Internet
>>>>>> over the 60
>>>>>> years from when this machine came to be? (there is a picture with
>>>>>> the story)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Is this technology phenomena equally the cause of climate change and
>>>>>> can
>>>>>> it be somehow statistically correlated to CO2 increases?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Russell
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Australia's first 'iPod' marks 60th birthday
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "The CSIRAC - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
>>>>>> organisation Automatic Computer - is housed in the state's museum
>>>>>> and has
>>>>>> today been granted heritage listing as part of its birthday
>>>>>> celebrations.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It is the first computer ever to be made in Australia; the fourth
>>>>>> computer ever to be made in the world; and the only first generation
>>>>>> computer that remains intact. . . ."
>>>>>>
>>>>>> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2752781.htm
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> [snip]
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>
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>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> Doug McDavid
>> [log in to unmask]
>> 916-549-4600
>>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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