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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  November 2009

UCD-STAFFORDBEER November 2009

Subject:

Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)

From:

Frank Wood <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 26 Nov 2009 22:21:30 +0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (336 lines)

Also re: formerly predicted ice age, it is now noticed that in the
arctic the ice is actually advancing again! And it's not helpful when
some of the environmentalists dismiss this as an "exception".

Very cheering to see more physicists beginning to question the global
warming scam. It's being the marketeers' dream especially the Carbon
Footprint campaign which has made many many people very rich.

It would definitely be better to design societies that can respond
flexibly to global warming or another ice age. Of course another ice
age would be the ultimate challenge that would make global warming
infinitely preferable.

Frank

On 26 Nov 2009, at 21:27, Nick Green wrote:

> Thanks Stuart. It has tied down von Foerster's contribution for me.
>
> But Frank's point about greater energy consumption per capita is
> well made. At least everyone is focussed on low energy solutions
> these days.
>
> It seems churlish to go on about the misperceived evils of carbon
> dioxide but not inappropriate now America has made a decision to get
> involved- to adopt the Precautionary Principle.
>
> Few physicist friends seem impressed by the science behind Global
> Warming. Now Freeman Dyson can be added to that list. Pask had no
> time for the Greens' "claptrap" as he was heard to say once. At the
> time I was happily working on a contract for Greenpeace to improve
> electrical chemical analysis methods and the "clouds are the thing"
> position came out of precipitation and albino discussions. Recall
> also in the sixties, based on astro/geo data, climatologists had us
> entering a new ice age. Today some say ice cores show temp increase
> preceding CO2 increase.
>
> Tremendous irony, though, for vegetarian pacifist friends who see
> their campaign for conservation taken up by the military to produce
> a solar from space solution (as per the Next 100 years scenario).
> Friedman will have beamed microwaves as the means of transmission
> (which may heat the atmosphere to some extent). For work in space
> surely a space elevator is the real answer. It might heat less and
> calculations on a tapered cable show perfection of long carbon
> nanotubes, as current costing fashions dictate, may not be
> necessary. All I can say is thank heavens this work is all in public.
>
> Incidentally Pask's "no causality can be proved within circularity"
> can be made tractable in considering the products of concurrent
> homeostatic processes. Applicable design rules from his theory
> haven't emerged yet.
>
> Best
>
> N.
>
> PS
> One of Lovelock's famine cards is the decrease of productivity in a
> warm ocean. We now know most biomass is microbial and sub microbial.
> Considering the facile exchange of DNA at this level surely an
> adaptation in the primary food chain would not be long in coming if
> needed.
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------
> From: "Stuart Umpleby" <[log in to unmask]>
> Sent: Wednesday, November 25, 2009 10:29 PM
> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)
>
>> Heinz von Foerster published an article on world population in
>> Science
>> magazine in 1960, 8 years before Paul Ehrlich's book The Population
>> Bomb. It generated a VERY entertaining exchange of letters in
>> Science. See
>> http://www.gwu.edu/~umpleby/world_population/index.html
>> Currently world population is growing at about 80 million a year.
>> The
>> Economist recently had a cover story saying that growth rates are
>> declining rapidly.
>> Heinz's point was that about 2026 will be a time of instability in
>> the
>> relationship between human beings and the environment. According to
>> the World 3 model from the Club of Rome (1972), about 2025 will
>> mark a
>> transition from rising to falling world population. I have heard
>> people in Washington, DC, say that the Club of Rome models are
>> invalid
>> because their predictions did not come true, but the turning point is
>> still 15 years (approximately) in the future. I think the models
>> have
>> held up pretty well.
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 25, 2009 at 5:14 PM, Frank Wood <[log in to unmask]
>> > wrote:
>>> Hi Nick,
>>> someone whose name I can't remember has had his writings on
>>> overpopulation
>>> revived and people now are listening to him.
>>> Birth *rate* might be declining but unfortunately that the
>>> population is
>>> still rising. And the means more and more resources being used up
>>> and if you
>>> subscribe to the greenhouse gas stuff then that means more humans
>>> emitting
>>> co2 more livestock to feed those humans which means more methane
>>> being
>>> produced and so on. It doesn't seem that those authorities have
>>> keyed the
>>> above factors in.
>>> Frank
>>> On 25 Nov 2009, at 20:57, Nick Green wrote:
>>>
>>> Hi Russell, Doug, Frank
>>>
>>> Well happy birthday to CSIRAC. Of course joules per bit were
>>> enormous then
>>> and we are working on the single electron transistor .i.e everyone
>>> is
>>> working on low power if only because batteries cannot improve much
>>> and
>>> everybody wants long life viable mobile devices.
>>> On population people are saying that birth rate decline is pretty
>>> well
>>> universal but freedom of choice in this is denied by the Pope and
>>> Muslims
>>> which is certainly not politically correct. As it happens nobody,
>>> even the
>>> devotees, pays much attention to them on this but there is an
>>> unsustainable fuss about it. Note also some authorities are
>>> comfortable with
>>> a world population of 1000 billion. We don't all live in Japan or
>>> London -
>>> recall Marchetti "A check on the earth-carrying capacity for man"-
>>> given out
>>> at Cwarel Isaf 2? Didn't somebody once say we could all live on
>>> the Isle of
>>> Wight if suitably packed?
>>>
>>> On Enron, Doug check out SuperFreakonomics- apparently they were
>>> open about
>>> what they were doing within financial reporting laws anyway. The
>>> Big Six
>>> auditors are right - nobody understands company accounts. Lay's 25
>>> year
>>> sentence in high security (i.e. vicious prison) seems excessive to
>>> Levitt
>>> and Dubner.
>>>
>>> But take this on board. CO2 has had a bad rap. It's regarded as a
>>> poison.
>>> It's not: it's the basis of all the food we eat. So eat more and
>>> save the
>>> planet? Water and clouds are far more influential on climate and
>>> your own
>>> CSIRO sustainability group found a small increase in cloud cover
>>> would put
>>> climate back in recent range. On air conditioning hmm- there are
>>> better
>>> ways....
>>>
>>> Trouble is we don't understand cloud homeostasis. Recently CSIRO
>>> reported
>>> aerobacter aerogenes (a bacterium from tree leaves) might be
>>> important in
>>> seeding clouds for rain.
>>>
>>> But you are right Russell this is nothing to do with Friedman's
>>> The Next
>>> 100 Years. No climate wars just trade wars and the superstitions
>>> of the poor
>>> exploited by a frightened risk averse elite. There may be many
>>> faults in his
>>> approach one is that he doesn't factor in improved education and
>>> control from the web (where luck is not the product of
>>> propitiating the Gods
>>> but measuring the variance) or improved (democratic)
>>> accountability. Also in
>>> the robotized wars Friedman forecasts (Turkey vs Poland, Japan vs
>>> America)
>>> casualties will not be high. Fanciful maybe, fascinating
>>> certainly but we
>>> must consider possible scenarios. Homeostasis is a stern mistress
>>> and, says
>>> Pask, because of the circular nature causality cannot be proved. A
>>> naive
>>> science reduces us to superstition but at least we get a
>>> familiarity with
>>> the tools of good science.
>>>
>>> Best
>>>
>>> N.
>>>
>>>
>>> From: Frank Wood
>>> Sent: Wednesday, November 25, 2009 6:56 PM
>>> To: [log in to unmask]
>>> Subject: Re: The Next 100 Years (CSIRAC)
>>> Not to mention that overpopulation is and will be a major cause of
>>> environmental degradation. But of course it's non PC to talk about
>>> population control.
>>> Frank
>>> On 25 Nov 2009, at 12:00, russell_c wrote:
>>>
>>> Nick
>>>
>>> I'm not sure this is on topic, but this CSIRAC story (below) came
>>> through
>>> today and caused me to reflect on a comment (by Staford I think?)
>>> that "they
>>> will find the cause" to a major US power outage (a $2.50 relay?).
>>>
>>> Why are we blaming climate change causes on CO2 when the energy
>>> increases
>>> have a lot to do with the complexities related to power station
>>> upgrades
>>> needed for PC proliferation, building air-conditioning capacity
>>> increases,
>>> flat plasma screens and additional housing demand due to family
>>> break down
>>> etc.
>>>
>>> In respect to heat and power production -- are there any estimates
>>> of the
>>> energy generation involved in the growth of ICT and Internet over
>>> the 60
>>> years from when this machine came to be? (there is a picture with
>>> the story)
>>>
>>> Is this technology phenomena equally the cause of climate change
>>> and can it
>>> be somehow statistically correlated to CO2 increases?
>>>
>>> Russell
>>>
>>> Australia's first 'iPod' marks 60th birthday
>>>
>>> "The CSIRAC - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
>>> organisation
>>> Automatic Computer - is housed in the state's museum and has today
>>> been
>>> granted heritage listing as part of its birthday celebrations.
>>>
>>> It is the first computer ever to be made in Australia; the fourth
>>> computer
>>> ever to be made in the world; and the only first generation
>>> computer that
>>> remains intact. . . ."
>>>
>>> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2752781.htm
>>>
>>>
>>> [snip]
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For
>>> more
>>> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum
>>> Collaborative
>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org
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>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at -
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>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For
>>> more
>>> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum
>>> Collaborative
>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org
>>> METAPHORUM eList
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>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For
>>> more
>>> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum
>>> Collaborative
>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org
>>> METAPHORUM eList
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>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at -
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>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>>
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For
>>> more
>>> information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum
>>> Collaborative
>>> Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org
>>> METAPHORUM eList
>>> Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at -
>>> http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
>>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Stuart Umpleby, Research Program in Social and Organizational
>> Learning
>> 2033 K Street NW, Suite 230, The George Washington University,
>> Washington, DC 20052
>> www.gwu.edu/~umpleby, tel. 202-994-1642, fax 202-994-5284
>>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>>
>> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org
>>
>> METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>>
>> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>
> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org
>
> METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
>
> Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org

For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org

METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html

Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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