In line with the recent thread, it has not yet ARISEN as an
On 30 Oct 2009, at 16:33, Stefan Wasilewski wrote:
> How would we know Javier unless we try to make it so.
> In my mind it is still an emerging mess.
> On 30 Oct 2009, at 16:29, Javier Livas wrote:
>> Dear friends:
>> One little question:
>> Is the economy a viable system or a complex adaptive system? If the
>> latter, I doubt that it can be a science in its own right, so the
>> whole point is moot.
>> Javier Livas
>> On Oct 30, 2009, at 2:25 AM, Czeslaw Mesjasz wrote:
>>> Dear All,
>>> First, a usual disclaimer - I (we) could write much more but time,
>>> 1. The discussion on New Economics is in 95% "nihil novi sub
>>> sole". There
>>> is, and was, a divide between neoclassical, mainstrem economics and
>>> various "non-orthodox streams". Oliver Williamson, a
>>> representative of
>>> most mathematicized non-neolcassical trend, i.e. American
>>> Neoinstitutionalism was recently given the "Nobel Prize" in
>>> It's an important signal.
>>> 2. The line of divide is clear - "objectivity" vs. "subjectivity" in
>>> economics and finance.
>>> I have no time to provide links but search engines should help. So
>>> I recommend Robert Mirowski's works. He provides a good
>>> introduction for
>>> a deepened understading of economics as science.
>>> Then Donald McCloskey (presently Deirdre McCloskey) - economics as
>>> science of discourse and not the science of objective
>>> 3. Calls for a New Paradigm in Economics are well-known. There is
>>> truly a
>>> need to change the fundamentals - search for "objectivity" based
>>> classical mechanics (stability, equilibrium, etc.) proved to be
>>> vain - to
>>> some extent.
>>> Directions of replacement are well known - implementation of new
>>> models and metaphors.
>>> In this case cybernetics and complex systems are particularly
>>> useful -
>>> search for J. Barkley Rosser's works. Perhaps revitalization of
>>> dynamics at a new much more advanced level.
>>> 4. Current events in finance only fuelled the long-lasting
>>> A few weeks ago Paul Krugmann wrote in NYT about dominance of
>>> elegance over reality - it's a well-known issue but convincing
>>> when applied to the
>>> situation on financial markets.
>>> 5. Here I cannot refrain from quoting the Black Swan of Nassim
>>> Taleb. But
>>> on the financial markets we have also the Dragons (search for that
>>> along with
>>> the name Didier Sornette - an "econophysicist").
>>> In the USA there is Doyne Farmer, one of the pioneers of that
>>> approach -
>>> the Santa Fe works. His critique of traditional econometrics and
>>> modelling in finace is quite persuasive - search for an article in
>>> one of recent issues of "Science".
>>> 6. So what is new as a result of the crisis? BTW, I think that use
>>> of the term "crisis" is an abuse. See a picture of Fred Bell from
>>> Francisco in 1931 - that WAS the Crisis!
>>> Perhaps only a few issues which are alreaady developed.
>>> A. Rethinking mathematization of economics/management. Perhaps
>>> even more
>>> attention should be given to CAS (adding cognition and
>>> understanding of
>>> limits of decisiopn making), networks, system dynamics, etc. A more
>>> critical approach to existing models - perhaps a kind of non-
>>> econometrics with more attention paid to "fat tails".
>>> For example, in my opinion, the efficient market hypothesis is
>>> based upon
>>> a simplified understanding of information. We know that we do not
>>> precisely what is information - there are several functional
>>> to defining it.
>>> B. More attention to subjective discourse - again, "nihil novi..".
>>> structuralism and constructivism have been around in economics and
>>> management for some time. New ideas are emerging - markets for
>>> "subjective" (not necessarily creative) accounting - I call it
>>> post-modernist accounting.
>>> "I do not know if my numbers are correct and/or "objective" but
>>> due to my
>>> social/political position I am able to make my numbers more
>>> for the public/policy makers/shareholders/bondholders/media, etc.
>>> I very much like the discourse on financial stability. A deeper
>>> look at
>>> this "objective scientific term" gives amazing results.
>>> C. Perhaps more attention should be paid in academic discourse
>>> to another idea, too often treated as a buzzword -
>>> "sustainability" at
>>> various levels.
>>> D. Search for a "New Paradigm". I think that in a short term it's
>>> a vain
>>> effort. Of course, there will be attempts of the masters of
>>> discourse of
>>> global economics and finance to infuse new overwhelming metaphors.
>>> aleready have something new coined for the public - "jobless
>>> Perhaps soon we will have "balanceless banks" or "value of non-
>>> Continuation of brainstorming could perhaps be a good source of
>>> new predictions.
>>> E. I do not expect that soon some day somebody wil proudly declare
>>> - here
>>> is a NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM!
>>> Perhaps in the process of rethinking modern economics a consensus
>>> emerge about some changes in theory and policy oriented thinking.
>>> But I
>>> would not expect any breakthrough.
>>> F. There may be only one exception - a truly deep crisis, of course,
>>> different from the Great Depression. But hopefully there would not
>>> such a stimulus for research. A truly deep economic crisis would
>>> imminently lead to local or global war(s).
>>> As an exercise I suggest to read the texts where AIG painted
>>> of its collapse. Perhaps exaggerated but gave some taste of what
>>> 6. So before applying for any financing for the search of a New
>>> it's better to see what has been already done.
>>> 7. As for me, at present I have not capacity to search for
>>> something in
>>> New Economics.
>>> The above is just a "collateral effect" of my daily work on several
>>> texts in systems, security, management and corporate governance.
>>> I know that some of us will be at the Heinz von Foerster Congress in
>>> Vienna in November. So hopefully there will be time for discussion
>>> all that.
>>> Best regards, Czeslaw Mesjasz
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> METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
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For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org
METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html
Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html