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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  October 2008

UCD-STAFFORDBEER October 2008

Subject:

Re: Taleb

From:

"Wright, Steve" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 11 Oct 2008 14:07:35 +0100

Content-Type:

text/plain

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text/plain (80 lines)

Stefan,
 
We are in discussions with Aysa bank because its owned by members of a group of Muslims espousing nonviolence and peace through education. But they are rapidly expanding. I asked them about their ethics code and I reckon it was as good if not better than the coop re tobbacco, arms, alcohol as well as gambling. I think one of the weak points in the chain for all such ethical banks involves international transactions. Even the co-op has to ely here on the big 5 but presumably in the current climate there is an opening here for a new less volatile way of doing business. Just wish I had some money to have bought shares in this bank!
 
Steve

________________________________

From: Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer on behalf of Stefan Wasilewski
Sent: Sat 11/10/2008 10:36
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Taleb


Steve 

In line with any nested set of systems the Islamic Banks are not equal themselves. The rules of Sharia are not clear and not set by consistent governors, indeed there's a lot of variety here but one thing (for this conversation alone) they all agree on is that gambling is excluded and hence the derivatives market would be shrunk and programme trading non-existent.

Like you I've been in discussions with Islamic Banks and their UK managers and one conversation went just like yours: She said 'its a doddle, her job was clear: straight forward investments but lots of them'.

Stefan

On 11 Oct 2008, at 07:25, Wright, Steve wrote:


	
	Great insight Nick,
	 
	All banks are equal but some banks are more equal than others....      It might be worth reflecting for a moment on Islamic banking practices... I had the opportunity over the summer to chat with one of the Directors of the Aysa  bank in Istanbul. I asked him how much exposure his bank had had to the derivatives crisis. his catlike smile was affirmed by his answer - zero.
	 
	There is a lot of desperate capital out there looking for a safe haven. Would it not be a Paradox if the reasoned answer for some was to invest in the Islamic Banking system with its ethical codings against usury....?
	 
	Steve

________________________________

	From: Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer on behalf of Nick Green
	Sent: Sat 11/10/2008 05:07
	To: [log in to unmask]
	Subject: Taleb
	
	
	Taleb has just appeared on BBC2 Newsnight. Some of the points he made are probably right but in talking about "not being able to learn from the past" he talks about past crises. Paradox.
	 
	In our terms a large transient corresponds to a rare event (John Waters and I were just talking about infinite impulse response, modelling and estimating models). VSM is better than Taleb alone would suggest- even though he is Mr Time Series Analysis in many respects.
	 
	"How do you analyse a system?" I once said to Stafford back in the seventies. "Perturb it" he said. So we have the transient perturbation, the slope and step response of management. We would quickly find out something was wrong because we were measuring it in real time. The current problem seems to stem from the fact that the exposed risks weren't known (and we're not talking about rare events here).  Insuring depositors seems to be the right recovery strategy- as in so many professions removing perverse incentives seems to be the ultimate cure. That means more accountability- Taleb's remarks about Medicine (in the mp3) are particularly poignant there (doctors have few cures but plenty of remedies that can injure). I must say Taleb's remarks (on Newsnight) about mounting complexity seemed insufficient and the idea that buying a shirt (made in China) puts up the price of protein was obscure to me if not plain wild can anyone explain? Could this be one of Stafford's rubbish correlations? Mind you all events are at least weakly correlated. 
	 
	One thing is for sure speculators agreements to trade exist and can be analysed. Some are sitting, silently, on piles of cash, some are shaking in their boots with no cash. Who are they? For all we know Al Qaeda just found a better way to destroy infidel civilization other than by bombing.
	 
	Too much apocalyptic talk when all we need to do is firmly reform world Terms of Trade with the aim of Justice for producers and consumers through greater accountability: what products actually are, their provenance and, possibly, end user certificates. Indeed real time reporting on the web of how producers perform was recommended by International Auditors two years ago http://cybsoc.org/#realt
	 
	There was a time when as serfs we had to go the landlords house to bake bread, use a blacksmith and even suckle his children. Do we need centralized banks anymore in real-time webworld? They seem to be standing in the way of Fair Trade.
	 
	Best
	 
	N.
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	~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org <http://www.metaphorum.org/>  For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:www.platformforchange.org <http://www.platformforchange.org/>  METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to: www.platformforchange.org METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 


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For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org

For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:  www.platformforchange.org

METAPHORUM eList Archive available at - https://listserv.heanet.ie/ucd-staffordbeer.html

Archive of CYBCOM eList available at - http://hermes.circ.gwu.edu/archives/cybcom.html
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