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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  February 2008

UCD-STAFFORDBEER February 2008

Subject:

Re: Risk Management

From:

Stefan Wasilewski <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 4 Feb 2008 10:14:14 +0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (136 lines)

To go further:

As an insurance-derived man Risk is, to use Luc's expression, closely- 
coupled with an event; usually physical which is the primary but could  
also be any other form as a derivative [of which there are several  
levels].

Considering banking as a 3rd-order derivative of this system you have  
a nested, coupled and very much material 'system'.

I would like you to consider:
	The action of making a 'put/call' contract is the same as a feedback  
circuit.
	Creating a range of future boundaries to change activities and search  
for resources is a feed-forward loop.
	The activities within which all of these 'trades' take place demands:  
Production, Audit/Learning, Planning/Control and Vision/Ethos
	A modern global financial institution may not be as we want it but it  
has nested production/management and a global vision/ethos

I was vague in the last point as to the type of institution but bank  
or insurer the activities in the main are 'closely coupled' to  
physical and sociological activities both of which we know exhibit  
Risk in discrete events and concentration form.

Pentakonen for insurance was the first to analyse Risk for insurance  
and put it into modern book form and it is where many people derive  
their use of the word.

As Czeslaw points out 'Risk Study' has two primary  points of view but  
the value of a given risk can be a spectrum as wide as the population  
viewing it.

Whilst it may be taken out of context Risk can still be directly  
connected in peoples minds to events; mostly physical. What is more  
worrying is the lack of training 'Risk Experts' get in assessing the  
likelihood of an event and the changing world they're in.

I would say that the above clearly outlines a case for the VSM and I  
will go further.

Whilst unfamiliar with CAS I am with networks and there's good  
evidence that the VSM, Networks and Communication Theory can explain a  
lot; but it's still a map.

Therefore I go back to my earlier email point: We need to assess what  
we want as Humanity and then use the tools available to get there. I  
strongly believe we are the best situated to embraced the different  
disciplines embedded within it and therefore smooth the politics that  
will arise.

Work by Joe/Chris can identify a unified System structure and my  
personal vision is tetrahedral so we should keep discussing but get  
the date in the diary to bring some important people to the table.

Regards

Stefan


On 4 Feb 2008, at 03:51, Czeslaw Mesjasz wrote:

> Dear All,
>
> I enter the discussion on risk at a stage when many things have been
> clarified (almost), so only a brief additional comment.
>
> For quite a few years I have been interested in the links between
> cybernetics/systems approach (or whatever we may call it) and broadly
> defined security. It also allows me to project those issue in  
> management.
>
> All considerations on risk can be reduced to prediction and its
> limitations.
>
> On the cybernetics/systems research side the challenge of prediction  
> is
> relatively well-known. What is less known is the problem of risk,  
> which
> in my opinion is a specific semantic problem of normative
> interpretation of relations between past, present and future.
>
> As in all social studies, two basic polar approaches are  
> distinguished in
> "risk studies" - objective and subjective (constructivist).
>
> When we use the term risk, we have to declare what risk we are  
> taking into
> consideration since it has become just another "buzzword" of modern
> society and social sciences.
>
> By the way, we are actually living in the "Risk Society" according  
> to the
> views promoted by sociologist Ulrich Beck.
>
> In my research on risk (threats, dangers, vulnerabilities and the  
> like)
> systems thinking can be applied in better understanding both the
> cappabilities and limitations of prediction. In that case both VSM  
> as a
> general framework and CAS as specific methods of mathematical  
> modelling
> are helpful. Those two approaces are recalled just as examples.  
> There also
> other methodological frameworks.
>
> In addition to help understanding barriers and posssibilities in
> the studies of "objective risk", I find systems approach as helpful in
> identifying "subjective" barriers to prediction (psychological and
> social). Due to the latter, we frequently discover "predictable
> surprises". Once I even had to use in my writings an idea of  
> "politically
> correct worst case scenarios".
>
> If there is an interest in the links between risk and systems  
> thinking,
> and if my plans allow, I could present more details on that topic  
> during
> next Metaphorum meeting.
>
> Best regards, Czeslaw Mesjasz
>
> Assoc. Prof. dr hab. Czesław Mesjasz
> Cracow University of Economics
> 31-510 Krakow
> ul. Rakowicka 27
> Poland
> Tel: +48-12-293-56-19; Fax: +48-12-293-50-67
> e-mail: [log in to unmask]
>
> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:  www.platformforchange.org

For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:  www.platformforchange.org

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