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UCD-STAFFORDBEER  January 2008

UCD-STAFFORDBEER January 2008

Subject:

Fw: System failure

From:

Paul Stokes <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Paul Stokes <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 18 Jan 2008 01:43:49 -0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (185 lines)

 Arthur,

 It is my understanding that for a well-designed cybernetic system you do 
not
 need to specifiy in advance causes of possible future disturbance to the
 system.

 It would be a very interesting exercise though to specify an ultrastable
 (Ashby) aircraft capable of dealing with any possible source of 
disturbance.
 Sounds impossible? Any takers?

 Paul

>
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Arthur Dijkstra" <[log in to unmask]>
> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2008 4:52 PM
> Subject: Re: System failure
>
>
>> Thanks Stuart and all,
>> Yes I have read the Perrow's book. Because of complexity and coupling we
>> can
>> expect failures. I the safety management system (SMS) these failures
>> should
>> be anticipated and avoided or controlled. I want to work backwards, so
>> from
>> the accident, via the conditions into the organisation to find precursors
>> and control them. The way you understand accidents shape the way you try
>> to
>> prevent them. For now I want to describe accident in cybernetic language.
>> Regards,
>> Arthur
>>
>>
>> -----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
>> Van: Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer
>> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] Namens Stuart Umpleby
>> Verzonden: donderdag 17 januari 2008 17:25
>> Aan: [log in to unmask]
>> Onderwerp: Re: System failure
>>
>> Probably you know about Charles Perrow's book Normal Accidents, 1984.
>> As I recall, he claims that if the number of elements that can fail is
>> large and the interconnections among elements is large, occasional
>> failure is "normal."  Stated differently, complexity can be a cause of
>> failure.  Back up systems prevent a crash due to the failure of a
>> single component.  Hence, several things need to go wrong at the same
>> time to cause a crash.  So, one looks for combinations of failures and
>> factors which cause several components to fail at once.  Perrow's book
>> was widely read in the months and years before y2k.
>>
>> On Jan 17, 2008 9:39 AM, Arthur Dijkstra <[log in to unmask]> 
>> wrote:
>>> Hi Frank and others,
>>> Thanks, I am aware of this. The challenge is to relate data from the
>>> operational flights and the organisation to the probability of a
>>> accident.
>>> Therefore I need a exhaustive list of possible ways to crash a aircraft
>> from
>>> a cybernetic perspective.
>>> Regards,
>>> Arthur
>>>
>>> -----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
>>> Van: Forum dedicated to the work of Stafford Beer
>>> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] Namens Frank
>>> Verzonden: donderdag 17 januari 2008 15:33
>>> Aan: [log in to unmask]
>>> Onderwerp: Re: System failure
>>>
>>>
>>> Dear Arthur,
>>> whilst this is not a cybernetics approach I think it could be useful.
>>> It's
>>> more front line but tells its own story..
>>>
>>> Extract from article
>>> [...] But with so few crashes in recent years, air carriers and
>>> regulators
>>> have been trying to find other ways to identify potentially dangerous
>>> trends. Instead of digging through debris, they now spend far more time
>>> combing through computer records, including data downloaded from
>>> thousands
>>> of daily flights and scores of pilot incident reports.
>>>
>>> The information is stored on banks of computers, such as the server
>>> housed
>>> in a windowless office of a US Airways hangar here. Like its 
>>> counterparts
>> at
>>>
>>> other carriers, a small team of pilots and analysts sift through
>>> thousands
>>> of records daily looking for the seeds of the next big air crash.
>>>
>>> In recent years, the team has uncovered such potential safety problems 
>>> as
>>> unsafe landing and takeoff practices and difficult landing approaches.
>>> The
>>> data have helped pinpoint areas that pose an increased risk of midair or
>>> ground collisions and have led to the discovery of a large bulge in the
>>> runway of a Vermont airport. Even after threats have been reduced, US
>>> Airways' executives and pilots say they keep monitoring the data to
>>> ensure
>>> that their new procedures work.
>>>
>>>
>> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/12/AR2008011202
>>> 407.html
>>>
>>> Hope this helps.
>>>
>>> Regards
>>>
>>> Frank Wood
>>>
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>> From: "Arthur Dijkstra" <[log in to unmask]>
>>> To: <[log in to unmask]>
>>> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2008 2:10 PM
>>> Subject: System failure
>>>
>>>
>>> > Dear all,
>>> > In my project to develop a Safety Management System for aviation I am
>>> > evaluating different categories to describe aircraft accidents. Using
>>> > cybernetics, I want to make a exhaustive and usable list of the way an
>>> > aircraft can crash. Sort of 50 ways to crash your aircraft :-) Usable
>>> > means
>>> > in this context that in an organisation events can be related to the
>>> > possible accidents. As a cybernetician how would you build such a
>> category
>>> > (hierarchy of categories) to describe the possible accident types ?
>>> >
>>> > Thanks for your response,
>>> > Arthur
>>> >
>>> > For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>>> > For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:
>>> > www.platformforchange.org
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > ---
>>> > avast! Antivirus: Inbound message clean.
>>> > Virus Database (VPS): 080116-1, 01/16/2008
>>> > Tested on: 1/17/2008 2:16:49 PM
>>> > avast! - copyright (c) 1988-2008 ALWIL Software.
>>> > http://www.avast.com
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>>
>>> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>>> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:
>>> www.platformforchange.org
>>>
>>> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>>> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:
>> www.platformforchange.org
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -- 
>> Stuart Umpleby, Research Program in Social and Organizational Learning
>> 2033 K Street NW, Suite 230, The George Washington University,
>> Washington, DC 20052
>> www.gwu.edu/~umpleby, tel. 202-994-1642, fax 202-994-5284
>>
>> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:
>> www.platformforchange.org
>>
>> For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
>> For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:
>> www.platformforchange.org
>>
> 

For more information go to: www.metaphorum.org
For the Metaphorum Collaborative Working Environment (MCWE) go to:  www.platformforchange.org

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